Gotta Do it

Record 56-48 +4.35

I gotta do it. Today I have to go against the streaking Brewers. Just too many things are adding up and it looks like a time for a market pull back just a tad.

One reason is that I feel paying -130 is a bit outside the box and linemakers are counting on people piling on the Brewer bandwagon. Even Accruscore Projections say Brewers win tonight 65% of the time which is -190. ESPN Streak Cash players are 68.1% on Milwaukee . . .everybody is all over the Brewers. This is like buying tech stocks in 2000. I'm not a big bandwagon fan when it comes to wagering.

I can't get over the fact that The Brewers are not excellent vs. LHPs and Jaime Garcia is a pretty darn good pitcher and in 5 of his 6 games vs. the Brewers has given up 0,0,0,2,1 earned runs (7 runs in his one anomaly game). So taking away the anomaly game his Brewer ERA is 0.79.

Do I really want to pay -130 going against a guy with a 0.79 ERA? The Brewer bats were pretty silent last night except for 6 straight hits!

The Cards are a very good hitting team and Marcum has been a real surprise as one of the most consistent pitchers on a REALLY good pitching team.

So my feeling is that this game will come down to who gets the clutch hit. And again, paying -130 for a clutch hit just seems wrong. Paying +120 on a game I feel is 50/50 seems like the right choice.

Cards +120