Grinders Warehouse

Busy Tuesday

2011-08-16T08:08:00.001-05:00

It's been a busy week. It's Art Fair week which means I run around getting everything in order. I don't think people realize how many little things need to be prepared for an art fair. It's like setting up a small store from scratch every few weeks. From matting prints, framing, cleaning glass, figuring out exactly what will go on walls, figuring out the set-up as every location is different, ordering prints putting hardware on canvas packing, book work and so forth.

The Agora Art Fair in Fitchburg is a big deal with newspaper articles, TV ad's and what not. THEN! THEN! I had to write a resume and cover letter for my old job with the State as they want me to come back and work one day a week, plus I still have images of the images of Classic boats I'm going through and a Car Show I have not looked at yet AND Lake Mills images AND Fox Lake which I have not had time to get to yet.

AND AND I have to mow the lawn today and get ready for 3 days in Door County to make sure the gallery up there is stocked AND make sure teh gallery in Lake Mills is good to go. SHEESH - so much for taking it easy!

Before I forget - Public Enemies Celebration will happen the August 27th in Columbus. You know, I think Michelle and I have benefited the most out of this whole movie thing. I know I have and Michelle got a big boost in her photography business.

Make sure you check out my news website RodMelotte.com

Of course what do I do? I get a huge book to read in my "spare" time. George R.R. Martins "A Game of Thrones: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book One"; On amazon 80% of the 2,043 reviews give it 4 and 5 stars. A couple in the Home Brew club LOVE the show series on HBO and I looked up the book and wow - everybody says it's a classic.

One review said this - You will LOVE this book if:

YOU ARE TIRED OF FORMULAIC FANTASY
YOU ARE TIRED OF ALL THE HEROES STAYING ALIVE EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE UNDER CONSTANT DANGER
YOU ARE A MEDIEVAL HISTORY BUFF
YOU LOVE SERIOUS INTRIGUE WITHOUT STUPID OPPONENTS
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN BIASED OPINIONS AND DIFFERENT TRUTHS
LEGENDS
WORDPLAY
LOTS OF CONFLICT
MULTILAYERED PLOTTING; SUB PLOTS GALORE
SUPERLATIVE VARIED CHARACTERS
REALISTIC MEDIEVAL DIALOGUE: not to the point that we can't understand it but well done.
HEAPS OF SYMOBLISM AND PROPHECY
EXCELLENT MYSTERIES
RICHLY TEXTURED FEMALE CHARACTERS
LOW MAGIC WORLD
SWEARING, SEX

That last one were the kicker for me!!

I've read the 1st chapter AND the Prologue which I never read first. I always save the prologue for when I need a break in the plot. I tell ya - I'm hooked already. The one thing I was worried about was the dialogue - I picked up a sailing book with pirates and so forth and even though I knew all the words . . . I could not really understand what they were saying. I thought maybe I was having stroke or something. Or like when I tried to watch "A Midsummers Night Dream" the movie with Kevin Kline and Michelle Pfeiffer. After 15 minutes I had not actually understood one thing. The words were there but I not understand . . . I mean "Since lion vile hath here deflowered my dear." WHAT? WHAT?

ANYWAY - the dialogue is perfect. Just enough medievalness.

One thing I read though is that the Kindle version - 100% SUCKS!!! No one likes the editing for Kindle - I thought Kindle was verbatim???? Why would they have to edit for Kindle?
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WOW - how about those Brewers - last night had to be the best defensive game I have EVER seen one team accomplish! A triple play, four double plays and an out at home!!

In the last 20 games:

Fielder is hitting .403 with a .683 SLG (he will be a Brewer next year - don't worry)
Braun .364
Betencorp (who ALWAYS is a 2md half hitter) .338

Hart .329
Kotsey .318
Lucroy .305
McGehee .297
As a team they are hitting .293 with a .444 slugging

BUT WAIT Pitchers in the last 20 games have a 2.23 ERA - the bullpen in their last 47.3 innings have a 0.60 ERA. WOW!!!

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Thursday I do the whole play 18 holes of golf at 7:30 in the morning and then Brewer game in the afternoon with Adubua, Balderdash, and Network so that will be a uber fun day. I hope I golf better then last year when I totally sucked. I'll walk the course this year. When I cart-it I always do worse as I don't have a chance to dwell on my last bad shot and make corrections.

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Michele Bachmann - is it just me or does she look like some crazed person about to kill a puppy or something. Of all the photos Newsweek picked that one?

Elwood as two sisters, one very liberal and one very very VERY conservative Tea Partyish. The conservative one said that FOX is way to liberal for her tastes. Elwood said WHAT?? FOX is to far leaning LEFT? Yes she said. So he says, if FOX is leaning LEFT who has the right side of the media. She say that is the problem with America, ALL of the news organizations are slanted left, the REAL Americans, who are actually in the majority, have no news on their side. Every news organization lies to keep the majority of Americans clueless.

Ok . . . . . I will admit that MSNBC and NPR are slanted left but I listen to the big 3 networks and they all seem fine.
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The Department of Homeland Security has recently announced the creation of a program called “If You See Something, Say Something.” Posters, billboards and advertisements will be placed in airports, bus stations, movie theaters, and gas stations around the country, in addition to the videos that will soon begin playing non-stop inside 600 Walmart stores. This propaganda campaign will be promoting one consistent, repetitive message – the people around you cannot be trusted, watch them carefully at all times!

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Finally - I have not had a chance to check up on Columbus's newest cool thing - the Brew Pub. When I get any info I'll pass it on. OH - I did get an email from Karen saying "We are looking for managers in Columbus" Gain access to positions working from your residence with companies like Apple, Coleman, Adidas, Compaq and much more...

If you are serious about a career change, we want to hear from you. $256.95 PER DAY!!!!

WOW sweet - I have to click on a link and apply to some place in Isla-Colon Bocas-del Toro,
Republic of -Panama.

What could possibly go wrong!

A bargain at -205

2011-08-12T08:37:00.001-05:00

Finally lost. No worries! I had to play the Brewers. Only 1 unit.

Today the Crew are home against reeling Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 5-15 in their last 20 games and are hitting .242 (only SF is worse) and scoring a solid 3.6 runs again (only SF is worse and they scoring 2.3 runs a game).

The Pirates have 3 less homeruns then the Brewers but are making a lot of errors so there league worse 5.36 ERA should be much higher. Brewers have the league best ERA in the last 20 at 2.75. OH - Pitts have given up a league worse 31 HR so in HR friendly Miller Park . . . . watch out!

This game SHOULD be -300 for Milwaukee so -205 is actually a bargain.

Brewer Numbers in the last 20.

Betencorp is hitting .377 .481 SLG
Fielder .343 .575 SLG
Braun .342 .605 SLG
Hart .333 .533 SLG
Morgon .294

And those are the top 5 guys with ABS

Brewers -205

This is just too easy

2011-08-11T07:32:00.000-05:00

Call me a lemming but I'm riding the Brewers until they lose - I mean come-on 13 of the last 14 and they are +120 dogs?

Brewers +120

BTW - Dan Uggla - hitting .220 and has a 30 game hitting streak??

KISS

2011-08-10T07:19:00.000-05:00

Sometimes there is no need to really get deep. Keep It Simple Stupid.

Do you really want to go against a team that has won 12 of it's last 13 games.

And when the 12 in the last 13 are underdogs this just cries out - TAKE THE DOG.

Record 61-49 +8.63

Keeping it Simple

HERE WE GO!!!

2011-08-09T08:06:00.000-05:00

Tuesday - Record 60-49 +7.55

Both teams have pretty easy schedules for the rest of the year. The Brewers have 25 home and 22 away games. The only team with a winning % they play besides the Cards are the Phillies with 4 games at home.

The Cards have 28 home and 19 away games with 16 games against teams above .500

Here is the difference between the Cards and Brewers. The Cards are a team that needs to get all juiced up to play well. They need LaRussa to get the team charged up, they play better when their testosterone is at a high level.

The Brewers on the other hand are a laid back team. They go out and have fun and when they are relaxed they play their best. So when LaRussa starts all of his shenanigans HE thinks he is getting the Crew off their game. But so far it looks like the Brewers are just ho-humming. Let the Cards get all anal we're not changing. HOWEVER - the main players, Braun and Fielder LOVE the banter between the two teams. So the right guys on the Brewers get charged up.

On the other hand the Cards are getting overheated and doing dumb things. LaRussa is very very good at taking a team with problems and making them contenders.

If you look at the two teams pens their basic stats are almost EXACTLY the same. Same exact inning pitched 327.1 same batting average .249. However - St. Louis pen has a higher OPB, higher SLG, higher OPS. MANY MANY more HBP (go figure)and twice as many IBB.

Today I'm on the Brewers at +108. In the last 20 games the Brewers have a team ERA of 2.61, the Cards are a decent 3.45.

Back to today - Edwin Jackson has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)of 3.54 and an ERA of 4.11 meaning the defense behind him is not helping.

Marcums FIP is 3.77 and his ERA is actually better at 3.58.

I think Marcum will do well in St. Louis. He has HR problems in Miller Park and just does much much better on the road. I believe he will be relaxed in a pitcher friendly park.

Brewers +108

Huge Favs all weekend I bet

2011-08-05T07:16:00.002-05:00

I'm going to have a tough time the next few days as I'm covering a Antique and Wooden Boat Show which will mean being on the road by 5:00 in the morning tomorrow and taking off today by 7:30.

SO - Brewers are -210 favs ON THE ROAD.

I GUESS I'll take the Brewers even though I'm not real excited about paying that much. The run line is -130 which seems a little better. Still - on the road is scary.

record 58-48 +6.55

Sorry for no big write up but . . at least it's the Astros, not a lot to say the next few days as I'm sure we will be huge favorites all weekend.

Brewers -210 for this but maybe a run line -130 in reality. . on the road anything can happen.

Dog Fight

2011-08-03T07:36:00.000-05:00

WOW - what a freaking amazing game last night - talk about two teams going at each other. I wonder if Molina will be playing today or is this one of those wait a month and THEN suspend the hot head. You gotta think that spitting on a ump will not help you in your argument.

Anyway - tooting my own horn I called that game right on the head didn't I (remember I also smack myself when I lose so . . . .)

Record 57-48 +5.55

Today the Brewers are UNDERDOGS at -102 and I'm all over that one.

Couple things - IF Molina does not play or even if he does there might be some calls that will find there way against him. If the other catcher plays it's just a good thing anyway.

Jackson is a freaking good pitcher who has been hot so that is a major concern and the reason the Brewers are dogs. But Wolf is not too shabby either.

The Cards are slightly worse against LHPs but not THAT much. But Molina is very good vs, LHP so if he is not in the line-up it's a big deal.

I don't have a lot to say about this game - one thing I just noticed is that the Cards are not very good hitters in day games. Their RC/27 is a tiny 3.85 in 35 games while the Brewers are about even Day vs. Night. The Cards are way way worse during the day games. In fact the cards slugging at night is .441 and in daylight .381. weird.

Jackson's ERA is about 1/2 run worse in daylight in the last 3 years while Wolf is 0.20 better in daylight.

Wolf has a 3.15 ERA vs. St.Louis in the past three.

Brewers -102 and liking the game.

Cheers

BUT - the pitching staff is also better in daylight.

Gotta Do it

2011-08-02T07:41:00.000-05:00

Record 56-48 +4.35

I gotta do it. Today I have to go against the streaking Brewers. Just too many things are adding up and it looks like a time for a market pull back just a tad.

One reason is that I feel paying -130 is a bit outside the box and linemakers are counting on people piling on the Brewer bandwagon. Even Accruscore Projections say Brewers win tonight 65% of the time which is -190. ESPN Streak Cash players are 68.1% on Milwaukee . . .everybody is all over the Brewers. This is like buying tech stocks in 2000. I'm not a big bandwagon fan when it comes to wagering.

I can't get over the fact that The Brewers are not excellent vs. LHPs and Jaime Garcia is a pretty darn good pitcher and in 5 of his 6 games vs. the Brewers has given up 0,0,0,2,1 earned runs (7 runs in his one anomaly game). So taking away the anomaly game his Brewer ERA is 0.79.

Do I really want to pay -130 going against a guy with a 0.79 ERA? The Brewer bats were pretty silent last night except for 6 straight hits!

The Cards are a very good hitting team and Marcum has been a real surprise as one of the most consistent pitchers on a REALLY good pitching team.

So my feeling is that this game will come down to who gets the clutch hit. And again, paying -130 for a clutch hit just seems wrong. Paying +120 on a game I feel is 50/50 seems like the right choice.

Cards +120

Cardnials - Bring It losers!

2011-08-01T08:38:00.000-05:00

WELL - The Brewers are pretty good at beating bottom feeding teams!

Record 55-48 +3.35

Today the Crew play St. Louis and WORST CASE is that the Brewers are swept and we end up 1/2 game out of 1st place. I'm pretty sure that ain't going to happen.

Brewers as low favorites of -101 to -120 are 6-3 +2.78.

Chris Carpenter has been pitching lights out for the last two months with an average game score of 58.9 in his last 10 starts. Rickie Weeks KILLS Carpenter . . .too bad . . . how ever Lopez who has more ABs vs. Carp has a .443 OB and a .542 SLG so that's not to shabby.

Greinke in his last 5 starts has a Game Score of 61.8 so it will be a pretty good game tonight. He has given up only 2 HRs in 96 AB's to card players!

The Cards just played 7 home games against the Astros and the Cubs and went 4-3 while the Brewers were 6-0.

After tonight's game the Brewers only play St. Louis 11 more times! This year the total runs Card/Brewer games are 6,4,4,8,8,7.

I'm on the Brewers tonight at -120.

2011-07-31T08:48:00.000-05:00

My very small every other Sunday Brewer blog

Record 53-48 +2.45

Put a bunch on the Brewer run lane last night at -120 Brewers were -270 which is what I use in the records.

Today Brewers and Narveson are -180

Brett Myers has pitched 3 good games in a row but HAS given up TWENTY SIX home runs in 141 innings!! HOLY CRAP!! Prince has hit 4 HR's in 18 ABs vs. Brett.

Narveson has been pitching pretty well.

Nuff Said

Brewers at home as big Favs do well

Brewers -180 all the way

What the hell do I do

2011-07-30T10:57:00.000-05:00

Record 53-48 +1.35

OK - Brewers are -270 for today's game - the question is is that too much to ask? it's not like the crew is KILLING the ball but the worst team in the majors lose their best player.

The Astros are 4-20 when J.A. Happ starts a game and the guy is really having problems. Happ's last 6 starts he has an average game score of 32! That is BAD. Happ has given up 16 HRs in 110 innings BUT - is a lefty.

If you take away the one bad game for Gallardo his average game score is 62 - WITH the bad start it's still 54.

Hell - I'm not even going to talk about the game it is SO lopsided but -270?? The Brewers are averaging 2.5 runs a game in their last 8 games while the other team is averaging 2 runs a game.

The TOTAL is 8.5

The Run line for the game is -120 which is looking sort of good at the moment as I don't see this being close. Either the Brewers win 15-0 or they lose outright 2-3.

I tell ya what I'm doing - I'm playing the run line at -120 - my stats will reflect that I'm wagering Brewers -270 but in reality it's -120 1.5 runs. I want to keep everything within the norm.

The Stro's Bring it!

2011-07-29T07:42:00.000-05:00

4 to 2 on a -185 game is not the most comfortable score you can think of. -185 you SHOULD have your way with a team, BUT . . . I'll take a win for the Brewers any day. When betting a dog of +165 you are pretty much rolling the dice.

Tonight the Brewers play a team that not only has a worse road record then the Brewers but they have a home record worse then their road record! Jordon Lyles pitches who has lost 9 straight games when he has started and he has not pitched THAT bad.

BUT - he does play for Houston who are 5-15 in their last 20 games. They can hit for an average average but have absolutely zero power and do not score runs. In the last 20 they have an On Base of .296 and a SLG of .356.. They are basically an entire team made up of Mark Kotseys except they walk even less!

Of course going up against then is Randy Wolf who in the last 8 games has seen his offense score a total of 16 runs. Wolf does very very well against current Arizona players limiting their 153 ABs to a .216 Avg, .268 OB .340 SLG. He is 3-2 as a Brewer vs. the Astros.

The only tiny worry is that Houston did beat the Cards on the road 2 straight but was it more of the Cards ineptitude?

This is the Astros final series of a horrific road trip ( 2-5 so far . . which is better then their average road trip), they were swept by the Cubs, lost two straight to the Cards and won the last two 4-2 and 5-3.

The crew is 4 and 2 against Houston this year.

I'm on the Brewers -180

The Brewers are -180 and now as big favs of -178 or greater they are 3-1.

Houston in the last 20 games have given up the 2nd most homeruns in the League

Rickie GONE

2011-07-28T08:02:00.000-05:00

At least we have Counsil to fill in for Weeks, no loss THERE!!!

Today's game looks REAL obvious. Brewers should kick some ass right? I mean come on, Randy Wells.

Here are a few things swaying me off the Brewers today.

1. Wells DID beat the Brewers earlier this year.

2 The Brewers, when huge favorites at home do not do well, at -170 or greater the Crew is 3-3 -2.21 units. When they win the average score is 10.3 to 5. When they lose the average score is 1.6 to 4.3.

3. -185 is a LOT to pay when team has just lost their most important batter. It's not Prince, it's not Braun. The #1 offensive guy on the team was Weeks. The game after he goes down there will be a transition. Luckily it'll be against the Cubs but . . . .

AccuScore projections say Brewers win 71% of the time after 10,000 simulations which is about a -240. But it does not take into account the psychological loss. Plus what lineup? Lucroy probably will be on the bench with non-hitting Kottaras catching. And how is Braun, will he start a day game after a night game or is it a "give the quad a rest day" because this one is in the bag already.

I gotta go with the huge Dog today because I don't want to get to far away from breaking even. CUBS +165

record 52-47 +1.35

Getting a deal!

2011-07-27T07:44:00.000-05:00

THAT is why we like Kameron Loe - the guy is a ground ball specialist. When Roenicke put Loe in in the 6th inning with the bases loaded and no out I was perhaps the only person in America who had confidence. It seems to me that if the Brewer bats can come through and the Crew have a lead, the game is now a 6 inning game. . . . at least at home LOL

Record 51-47 +0.35 BACK IN THE BLACK!!

Carlos Zambrano goes against Greinke tonight and the Brewers are a mammoth -163. This is nose bleed territory but -150 to -170 the Brewers are 13-1. It gets REAL scary -170 and above so let's keep these lines below -170.

Zambrano has pitched poorly in 5 of his last 7 outings and deserves his 4.70 ERA. He has sucked vs. the Brewers this year. What the Crew needs to do is get to him early as he struggles out of the gate, calms down and by the 3rd time through the line-up team have figured him out!

Fielder is a Zambrano killer with a .532 OB and a 1.191 OPS. As a whole the Brewers are about a .500 club vs. Zam but Brewers have not beaten Zambrano in 5 years in Miller Park . . . it's meaningless! However Zam is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA his last eight starts at Miller Park. MEANINGLESS - I hope.

On the other side of the coin is Greinke does NOT deserve his 4.84 ERA. He has pitched well in 5 of his last 6 games and has a 2.88 ERA in July which is more of what he should be doing. Zacks big problem this year is the home run ball but as long as no one is on base it only hurts a little. Come on, the guy has only walked 18 batters!! WOW!!

The current Cubs only have a .337 slugging against him in 83 ABs.

One thing I noticed is when Zack loses he loses BIG. In the 5 games the Brewers have lost when he pitches the opposing team has scored, 8, 12, 12, 9, 4. The Brewers are 10-4 in games he has started.

AccuScore simulation projections have the Brewers winning 67% of the time with a 21% chance Braun hits a HR, 20.2% Hart hits one and 19.2% Prince his one - interesting

In case you are wondering 67% would be -200ish so -163 is a deal.

And did you see the final play of the Pirate game? The ump totally blew the call at home plate - Pirates lose.

Brewers -163

Home Again

2011-07-26T07:50:00.000-05:00

A note to Anonymous - no chance of beating the Phillies? ummm - so far they have done pretty well against the Phillies this year!
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So the crew is back home again and I am all over the Brewers tonight at -136. MY road trip went 4-7 so I'm glad to be home again.

This is in their wheel house as the Brewers at home as larger favorites are crushing the line.

One problem - Dempster is a Brewer killer. Against the current Brewers with a total of 243 ABs he has a .219 AVG and a .366 Slugging against and in his last 20 games vs. the Crew he is 14-6 HOWEVER only 5-6 in Milwaukee. Remember - he shut the Brewers out in 7 innings, 4 hits 1 walk and 7 Ks on June 13 . . . in Chicago.

He is the Greinke of the Cubs. Not a bad pitcher but has a 5.00 ERA . He has a 3.99 ERA at home and a 6.70 ERA on the road.

He will go against Narveson who has won 7 of 9 in games he has started and has had Game Scores above league average in his last 5 outings. He has never lost to the Cubs and in the last 3 years has 22 Ks in 19 innings.

The Cubs are about equal LHP vs, RHP so being a lefty is no big deal.

The Brewers in the -130 to -170 range are 23-4 +16.23 units.

The Cubs are 8-12 in their last 20 while the Brewers are 10-10. Cubs have scored the 3rd least runs in the last 20 while the Brewers are about the middle of the pack. Cubs OB is .294, Brewers .310. Fielding the teams are tied for 11 place in the league - STELLER!

Here is something - the Cubs in the last 20 games have given up 7 unearned runs - Brewers? 14

A few fun Brewer numbers in the last 20 games

Betancourt is hitting .294 with a .453 slugging .324 OB
Week has a .241 Avg with a .494 SLG .341 OB
Pitchers .261 AVG .441 SLG and a .324 OB

Cubs Pitchers .114 across the board.

Fielder has a .343 SLG
Kotsey least the team in RBIs with 11 with a .304 average and a .478 SLG

Brewers -136

Record 50-47 -0.65

2011-07-24T11:19:00.000-05:00

HEY - even if the Brewers lose today I call the road trip a success at 5-6 - better then 2-9 which is what I was expecting.

I'm playing the Brewers today at +100 on the road. They seem to do well as tiny dogs or tiny favorites on the road and are 7-5 +1.93.

Madison Bumgarner does not give up homeruns at all - HOWEVER - when pitching in San Fran he gets hit pretty hard as opposing batters hit .313 against him.

Bumgarner is the Randy Wolf of the Giants when it comes to run support. Only once in 19 starts at AT&T field have the Giants giving him more then 3 runs. Lefties have problems against Bumgarner but Prince is not hitting ANYWAY so don't expect a lot out of him today.

Gallardo is 5-2 and 2-1 in San Fran.

One thing of note is that the Brewers have the 3rd least strike-out in the last 20 games while the Giant pitchers have the most Ks in the last 20 games!

I don't have much to say on this game - I like the Brewer chances in a low scoring game today (which now will be a 9-8 game).

Record 50-46 +0.35

Not unexpected!

2011-07-22T08:09:00.000-05:00

Looking at the past six Game Scores of the pitches the Brewers have been facing it's pretty telling on how they did on this road trip

Working oldest to today

Avg Game Score / Decision
61 / L
52 / L
46 / W
37 / W
51 / L
36 / W
Rookie / W
54 / L

Today 66 / ?

Game Score is just a easy way to see just how effective a pitcher was in one number. Number if innings pitched, BB/K Hits Runs Earned Runs are taken into account. The average pitcher is 50.

Here are the Brewers average Game Score in their last set of games

Gallardo - 53
Greinke - 62
Marcum - 47
Narveson - 58
Wolf - 52

So today we have 47 vs. 66 and the Brewers are +120 on the road.

That +120 area has been a real shit hole for the Brewers on the road going 3 and 12 and -8.41 units when betting on them.

SO - I'm all over the Giants at -130 today.

Matt Cain has been pitching lights out baseball with 5 of his last 6 game scores over 65. The Brewers have lost 8 of the last 10 games Marcum has started and he has been keeping the outfielders busy with flyballs with their only rest on home runs of which there is always AT LEAST one.

HOWEVER - Cain has not fair well vs. the Brewers going 2-4 with lots of K's but lots of BBs also. Marcum is 0-2 vs. the Giants.

AT&T Park is a pretty fair park when it comes to hits and HR's ro RHH but Lefties have a hard time poking them out. It does give up a good amount of doubles and a LOT of triples - how about putting a bet that Morgon has at least one triple this weekend.

Back to Cain. He can not hold runners on so expect the Brewers to be running if they can get on. He does NOT give up a lot of double plays so Braun and Hart should be happy and expect the catcher to be jumping around as Cain does get pretty wild at times. When he misses he REALLY misses.

BUT - I gotta go with the Giants tonight and I better take a nap as I'm losing a lot of sleep hours and NOW we are in the real west coast games that start VERY late.

Record 49-45 +0.65 and trying to keep my head above the water.

The next to game score games are

Brewers / Giants average Game Score

52 vs. 56
53 vs. 62

I WIN!!!

2011-07-21T10:53:00.000-05:00

What a game last night - stayed up for the whole thing so I'm working in like 4 hours sleep now!

Drew and Gomez are out of for the season and it hurts the Brewers. Gomez had a .821 OPS vs. LHP and his defense saved or won at LEAST 4 games for the Brewers. He will be missed! Roenicke completely out coached Gibson last night but COME ON - leave Narvason in. Seriously, he had like 85 pitches and had shut down 10 batters in a row!!!
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The Brewers have a winning record on a tough road trip??? NO WAY! 4-3? GET OUT!!!

Greinke vs. Kennedy tonight. Kennedy's good, what can you say - he goes deep into games which is what the Dbacks need. The think about Kennedy is that he will pitch a game with a lot of Fly balls and then the next game he is a GB pitcher.

Greinke has pitched 3 very good games and 4 of his last 5. In fact his whole year has been a good year. There is a reason he is 7-3. Don't look at his ERA which is full of bad luck and bad fielding. He has either been striking out batters or delivering ground balls which find there way through the porous Brewer infield.

I like the Brewers order - makes perfect sense and it looks like the hitters are enjoying it.

I'm taking the Brewers at +100 again. They are doing good things and +100 is a good on the road range.

Chasing my tail

2011-07-20T08:24:00.000-05:00

Road trips are killing me. Remember yesterday I could not tell if -115 was the beginning of a good range for the Brewers or the end of a very bad range for the Brewers on the road.

I guess it was the beginning of the good range.

Well today it's a little easier. The Brewers are at +100 which is a good area and looking at the match up I like it.

Saunders gives up a TON of homeruns at home in the past three years. 46 HR's in 311 innings pitched (although 1 year was with the Angles which is not a HR park?). He is also much worse vs. RHH with an OPS of .789 in 1700 ABs. He has only pitched against Milwaukee once and got shelled!

Narvo is 2-1 vs. the 'D-backs and has pitched 4 decent games in a row winning 3 of the 4.

So far this road trip has been OK for the crew - I'll take a .500 trip any day.

FOR ME it's been an ugly trip and this is a big big game as my record is 48-44 +0.65 - I WANT TO STAY ABOVE .500!!!!

The Brewers are 12-16 in Arizona and averaging 6.6 runs a game - I think they keep it going.

So I'm all over the Brewers today +100

Good

Gonig out on a limb

2011-07-18T10:31:00.000-05:00

On to Arizona and I made a bet that just "feels" right. If I lose it's back to tryign to take my brain out of the mix.

I picked the Brewers at +115 today. Yea - they suck as dogs in the +1teens but Josh Collmenter just does not instill a lot of confidence in paying such a large price for a favorite.

Yea - his last game pitched he shut out Milwaukee and yada but it was the 1st time the Brewers have seen him which always seems to be a problem for the Crew.

Wolf on the other hand does very very well against Arizona, 5-1 in the last 3 years and 13-6 in games he as started.

Then there is Fielder who hits .328 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs in 39 games against the Diamondbacks while the Brewers have won 6 straight in Arizona and have out scored the 'backs 46-14.

Hopefully Braun will play as he is 9 for 26 with three doubles, two homers, eight RBIs and 10 runs in his last six games at Chase Field and even Wold has won his last 6 starts in Arizona!

I THINK the Brewers have something going - new lineup and new back end of the bullpen.

I'll be up late tonight.

Brewers +115

record 48-42 +2.65 and treading water!

WHEW - good game

2011-07-17T09:19:00.001-05:00

Two good things one bad thing happened last night. besides the score.
GOOD
1. I HAVE to think that Loe pitched himself into a mop up roll for a while OR a "one batter need a DP" roll. (is it roll or role - I've been up for 5 minutes and have to go to "work" in a craft brew store today so time is short).

2. FINALLY Weeks is out of the lead off role and into the driving in runs roll.

BAD

Braun twisted his fallopian tubes or whatever swinging a bat and we will need Kotsey to hit .400 again I BET for the next 2 weeks.

OK today's bet is a tough one when I look at the pitchers. Marcum is looking good and Cook looks very bad. so you would think the Brewers would be the easy pick because . . . they have momentum now?

If you look at last nights game the reason the Brewers won was not really because their offense shined but because the solid Rockie defense went belly up for a couple innings.

Cook, while looking very very bad is a HUGE HUGE ground ball pitcher and has a winning record in Brewer games at 6-5 with a 2.88 ERA. The Crew will be without Braun who is a Cook killer (1.226 OPS vs, Cook). Kotsey is not BAD against Cook at .729.

Marcum's last 5 games have been less the league average in Starts and the Brewers have lost 7 of his last 8 starts with a 6.48 ERA but he is 1-0 vs. Colo.

Back to Cook though. Cook gives up runs because people get on base and score. Does not really give up a lot of HRs because of his extreme sinker ball. He is the the Rockies Loe. People get on base and people score. He is AMAZING with RISP and two outs but with less then two outs there can be a hitting parade. The question is - can the Brewers take advantage of this? Their bats are more geared towards the big inning with HR's not stringing 3 or 4 hits together in an inning ON THE ROAD.

The Brewers as road favs in the -115 area are 0-5. They are better as smaller road favs or even larger road favs but the average score as a road chalk in the teens is 1.4 to 4.4. Not a trend I want when you are putting extra cash out on a favorite.

SO - Rockies at +104.

Record 48-41 +3.65

Cheers! GO CREW!!

Clay Matthew Jr or Aaron Andrews.

2011-07-15T07:52:00.000-05:00

Awesome great start - what is worse - giving up 12 runs? Scoring 3 runs in Colorado? or 2 errors!! Game one of the 11 games in 11 days all on the road starts with a big juicy crap.

Today Narveson vs. relatively unknown Nicasio. Well I have always noticed that relatively unknown's do well vs. the Brewers. I have no real data on this but every time the Crew play against a rookie they flop.

What if K Rod never has an opportunity to pitch!

I gotta put my money on Colorado today at a modest -124. The Brewers are +114. The Brewers are 2-6 on the road as small dogs in the +119 to +100 range and last night did not install a lot of confidence in the road warriors.

Braun has a few streaks going with 23 straight games with a hit AND 24 straight games against the Rockies.

LOL - listening to Dan Patrick he is wondering who had better hair at the ESPY's, Clay Matthew Jr or Aaron Andrews! Is it Clay Matthew Jr? or Clay Matthew III. Isn't Clay Matthew Jr actually "our" Clay Matthew's dad? I'm so confused!

Anyway - Rockies AGAIN. I PRAY the Brewers win. I would be 1-1 and losing a little but I would feel better about the Crew. This is a really tough road trip!

Rockies -124

2nd half!

2011-07-14T10:20:00.000-05:00

Back into action with a new Set-up man. K Rod comes to Milwaukee with baggage and an attitude and it's the only thing I can see wrong. If K Rod can just forget the 17 million that the Brewers will steal away from him we have the bast 1-2 punch in the Majors for shutting the door. This also makes it so we will have a closer every day of the year if needed. No longer have to worry about over pitching in close games.

With that said the Brewers play in a HR park not unlike Milwaukee for lefties but very forgiving for right handed hitters and the best park in the majors for getting on base.

Common sense says play the Brewers today because they are +128 which is a pretty heavy dog for the Brewers but frankly they are 3-10 as dogs in the +130 range and I'm not going to let my optimism sway me. This is a time I just gotta put my homer-tude in my back pocket and realize that the Brewers have sucked on the road.

I hope they stop sucking but they have to prove it to me.

Gallardo is 0-3 in Colorado and 0-5 overall and all five were as chalks. Jimenez is 2-0 vs. Milwaukee at home and 4-1 overall.

So I gotta go with Colorado as home fav and a hefty -133.

GO BREWERS.

Record 46-40 +2.82

Sundau 7/10/11

2011-07-10T10:19:00.001-05:00

Sunday 7/10/11 Brewers at -140. This is the Crews wheelhouse for winning. -130 to -160 they are 18-3 and +13.84 units.

PLUS - the Brewers are going against Dontrelle Willis and his 6.85 ERA. I think the Crew are getting a deal on this one> I will guarentee he will not see the 7th inning and PROBABLY will not even see the 6th inning. he walks a shit load of batters, can not hold runners on base, throws a fair amount of DP balls along with Wild Pitches, an OK glove, a Lefty killer.

I expect an Active game on the base paths!

Record 45-40 +1.82

I'm putting a little extra on this game

Easy win last night

2011-07-09T09:22:00.001-05:00

WOW - exciting. One of the funniest lines I have seen in game comments was Brewers go against

[QUOTE]I certainly wasn't betting on a McGehee infield single[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]He was inspired by the sausage race[/QUOTE]

Brewers go against Johnny Cueto today who is ultra hot. I'm going with the Crew at -104 mainly because I don't want to pay =-106 for the struggling Reds.

The Brewers have done OK vs. Cueto in the past 3 years hitting 7 HRs in 46 innings and 4 HRs in 14 innings at Miller Park. Where the hell is Overstock.com Park anyway! Good God what a horrible name.

One thing to look for is that Cueto is very poor with RISP with a .863 OPS.

The Brewers have lost 6 of Marcums last 7 games but has not pitched THAT badly. He has been a little under average for sure in his last 4 games.

Cinci has not had a kind July so far and I'm always concerned with Braun out but Kotsey is hitting .400 this month replacing Braun and has a triple and 2 HR's so SO FAR there has not been a offensively. Defensively is another story and I thought I would never appreciate Brauns defense but I do now.

ANYWAY - Brewers -104 today

Record 45-39 +2.86 and a little breather room.

WHEW!!

2011-07-07T08:48:00.002-05:00

WHEW - I was in danger of having the NEED a win.

Today the struggling Brewer offense - less Braun who had an MRI yesterday (which is never a good thing) go against arch nemesis Cinci.

Narveson who has suck vs. the Reds against Bailey.

I'm going with the Reds today at +103. Without Braun the lineup is in shambles and come on - when you have a lineup with Counsil, Josh Wilson, Slumpy McGoo, Gomez, Betencorp and you don't have the one-two punch of Braun/Fielder. You are asking for trouble.

Cinci CRUSHES LHPs so unless Nervoson really is in top notch and the Brewers scores 8 runs. This is Cinci's game to lose.

Fear not though. In the last 23 games the Brewers and taking the opponents last 20 games the average winning pct for opponents is .584. THAT is tough. Playing all very hot teams back to back to back.

After the AS break the crew play an average of .480 teams so they get a little break. And remember - 20+ games ago the goal was to stay in contact with 1st place by the AS break. So far so good.

Cinci +104

Record 44-38 +2.86

Busy week

2011-07-06T10:11:00.001-05:00

Sorry - company from Dallas here this week - pretty busy but still betting (and losing).

Before people get all worried about the Crew the teams the Brewers have played the last 20 games have a combined winning%, in THEIR last 20 games) of .582. THAT is one tough schedule to go through day after day after day.

This is just like that horrific road trip when they played 4 very hot teams. After the AS break they will finish July against .420 teams.

Also remember - the goal was to get to the AS break within striking distance which they will. This is a marathon and the Crew are on a steep hill.

Today - AGAIN - I have the crew and Gallardo at -155 and I really need a win.

Record 43-38 +1.86 so losign today will get me striking range of going in the minus for the1st time this year!
-155 is the sweet spot for the crew going 5-0 in the -150 to -159 range and 8-1 -150 to -169 and 19-3 -135 to -169

Brewers -155 and I don't want to see Josh Wilson in LF. I feel this is a come down from having Braun there LOL

Tony Plush birthday hero

2011-07-03T09:14:00.002-05:00

Well - THAT game was never in doubt was it. !!!

Working today so this is a quickie.

Brewers as larger fav on the road have done well. The yare 4-2 or 4-3 depending where you want to cut off the lines. -0.05 units if you go 4-3

I like the Brewers today for the above reason and how hopefully last night win blew the dark cloud that was hanging over the crew. I was REAL worried when I saw the line-up full of bench people. How many games is McGehee sitting? Morgon - nice birthday. It's amazing how players with birthdays ALWAYS do great. A documented phenomenon.

He even said on the Jim Roam(sp) show (I hate that guy, Dan Patrick is so much better).

OH OH - better go

Brewers -130

Record 43-36 +4.86

Betencorp surprises me!

2011-07-02T09:27:00.000-05:00

Record 43-36 +492

The Brewers continue to show their ineptitude and it was not more evident then watching the ball go through Princes legs! That seemed to be the death blow for the game and confirmed all that is bad in the Brewers.

The key today is getting Narveson through a game without a big inning. Remember yesterday (or whenever) I said that typically the winning team in a game will score more runs in one inning then the losing team will score in the whole game (such as last night).

Navro is the king of big innings and I feel the Twins are not normally capable of score in groups of runs at home.

Another thing that was clear last night was fielding. Prince has made more errors this year that last year already (only 4 errors last year) and he had 7 errors the year before. The guy is much better with his glove then 4 years ago.

Fielder is 5th in Zone Rating in the NL which measures how many balls in his zone become outs. HOWEVER - Betencorp is rated .. SECOND in the NL! (who knew!!)

Zone Rating for Brewers

Fielder 5th out of 12
Weeks 8th out of 9
Betencorp 2nd - Escobar would be below Betencorp
McGehee 5th out of 8
Braun 6th out of 11
Gomez 8 out of 11 which surprises me Morgon would be just below Gomez
Hart 5th out of 12

Lucroy is last in throwing out runners which is sad as the Brewers pitchers historically are very good at holding runners on.

* The Zone Rating system is different because the area of responsibility, or zone, for each fielder is considered a "playable" area and does not account for balls hit into "Bermuda Triangles", "No Mans Land" or other impossible to field balls. A fielder that turns a double play is credited with 2 outs.

I have the Brewers on the road as a small fav -109

Greinke - have one of his best years

2011-07-01T08:06:00.000-05:00

I read an article about Greinke. Seems he is having a career year in everything but ERA. The problem is that he has had horrific luck this year.

His strikeout to walk ration leads all major league pitchers and is ridiculous. His swinging strike% is astronomical. However his ERA which is 5.63 and his FIP* is 2.72. The largest gap in the NL.

* Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible.

His problem is BABIP. When someone DOES get a bat on the ball they get a hit. Normally BABIP has a way of always going back to career averages.

Another problem is that only 55% of base-runners get stranded, league average is 70% and his career average is 71%.

In almost all of his stats he is having an ALL-Star career year and is one of the best pitches in baseball. It just does not seem like it. Earlier in the year I mentioned Axford's problem was that the defense behind him was one of the main problems - same here. Betencorp is not that great at all. McGehee is slumping with his glove, Braun failed geometry and Morgon is not a great CF with zero arm and his zone rating is only average in covering ground.

The Brewers might not make a lot of errors but they also do not get to a lot of balls in the first place.

With all that said - what about today's pick.

Record 42-36 +3.86

I'm going with the Twins today at +106.

Brewers as small road favs a have not done well. Going into a park that gives up zero homeruns against a team that does better in their home park. Gallardo has struggled on the road this year (along with all brewers).

Twins +106

I'm back - but I never left actually

2011-06-30T07:33:00.000-05:00

SO - I did not know anybody was reading this. I post my plays over at the SBR forum so it's not like I quit or anything.

Record 42-25 +4.86

The big problem is that I made a small shift in strategy which calls for less words. More of a Bridgejumper shift. The stats I had been using are really not helping that much, live and learn, this is why I was doing it. However along the way I have been keeping track of other things so . . . .

Did you know that the team that wins the game normally scores more runs in one inning then the losing team scores the entire game?

Anyway - today I'm playing the Brewers at +175. They have done well on the road as huge dogs going 2-2. Yea - CC Sabethia is on the mound but the Crew are good fast ball hitters - I think they have a chance . . . . maybe . . at least enough so I could not play the the Yankees at -200.

Yanks are pretty much the same LHP vs. LHP so not big deal there. CC is better on the road but come on - the guy is amazing. BUT . . . it's not like the Brewers have never seen the guy before.

Brewers +175

2011-06-25T08:51:00.000-05:00

After a totally dreary week in Wisconsin the roof will be open with actual sunshine.

Record 40-34 +3.86

Today I'm going with the Twins at +133. Brewers at -145 is just too much for goign against a LHP who is stingy on flyballs and HRs.

Add to the fact that the Twins are 15-5 in the last 20 games and the Crew are 11-9 ( only Pittsburgh is better in the Central, I actually fear Pitts more then St.Louis).

Minnesota has a 2.08 ERA has a team in their last 20 games and you can not take that lightly. They have only given up 8 HRs. The Brewers are 11-17 when they do not hit a HR 31-18 when 1+ HRs.

Plus the Crew is 7-9 vs. LHPs and score a little over 1/2 run less vs. LHP.

Of course if I win today played Minnesota tomorrow I bet the farm on the Brewers.

cliff notes

2011-06-24T14:48:00.001-05:00

Finally caught up - had a 7:00 tee time this morning so it messed the whole wagering day up.

Times like this - here are the highlights.

Baker - Home Runs, on the road - at home Home runs turn into doubles - on the road they turned into Earned Runs

Wolf - 7 non-poor outings, 4 very good ones. Oddly better at home - AWESOME at night!

Twins - good but not a LOT of scoring

Brewers - rested, better offense - really! 10-0 in home games after a Home loss. Games are normally not even close after a home loss!

Brewer pen - back end rested - just get to the 6th

Twins Pen - unknown because their Starters go so long in a game - spotty would be a word

Wager - Brewers -134 and confidant (which means absolutely nothing)

Record 39-34 +2.86 +7.25 when I play the Brewers as a FAV

No line today!

2011-06-22T07:57:00.000-05:00

This is a tough game to call today and sometimes (when I say sometimes I mean most of the time) I wish I did not have to bet EVERY game as it is testing my homer-ness.

Record 39-34 +2.86

Dog record 8-13 -2.46

David Price is a LHP who does not give up a lot of homers so the top of the order will have some problems.

On the Brewer side they have Marcum who is an unknown health-wise. If he goes only 3 or 4 Brewers lose. If he pitches carefully Brewers lose.

The Brewer bats are fine but not really crushing the ball and T.B. is tepid at the plate.

The PROBLEM is that there is no line out yet and I have to get going and will be away from the computer.

I git feeling is to go with the Rays if they are dogs of . . hmmmm let's say +130ish. If the Brewers are only -120 I might go with the Brewers.

------------------------

I'll also fade the Cards vs. RHP until they prove they can win. Losing Pujols is not a big deal vs. LHP but vs. RHP I think the line-up has some problems even though John Jay is a good filling (Barkman moves to 1B and Jay plays RF??).

Weirdness

2011-06-21T08:06:00.000-05:00

Not even going to think about last nights game - what a sham of an umpire. It was like Walker was behind the plate (Wisconsin people will get that one) He tossed a fan out of Miller Park last year.

Before people get all anal about the pitching staff.

The long and middle relievers suck. But this is typical, this is why they are middle and long relievers - that part of the pen on all teams are the wanna-be starters, not good enough to start, not good enough to be in the back end of the pen. The back end of Brewers pen is fine . . .IF the Brewers can get there! Recently the big problem has been when the Starters go down way early the pen is not giving the offense a chance to catch up.

Of course there is this whole offense problem which seems to be that when the Crew have a chance to put the game away they are always at the bottom of the order. The top of the order is scoring at a 3.50 clip per game which is a good number. They are just not having the opportunity to drive anybody in.

Forget St. Louis, they will fade (as you see they have been) Cinci is the team the Brewers have to watch out for.

I'm going with the Brewers AGAIN today with Greinke on the mound. The Crew are 7-2 in games he has started. T.B. needs walks which Greinke does not do.

Hellickson is a good pitcher, much better at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field then on the road. He is 7-6 in games started. He is pretty wild on the road. Brewers need to be calm and take a few balls!

If the Brewers can make it to the 6th inning the bull pens will battle it out and frankly I like the Brewers pen from the 6th on better then the Rays pen from the 6th on.

But - I'm losing my shirt lately with wagers

Record now is 38-34 +1.86 STILL UP!!!

Brewers -128 Tampa Bay a +118 seems like a good bet but Brewers have an extra bat in the line-up with Greinke - hope Braun plays!

If the Crew lose tonight I'll have to really re-assess things but I feel the last week has been an anomaly.

2011-06-20T15:06:00.000-05:00

WOW - I sort of anticipated Gallardo to do SLIGHTLY better!

Sorry - for being late - I'm a little pissed at myself for tossing money away yesterday - I knew better but the homer in me picked the Brewers - I knew better then that come on.
---------------
I think I should make this simple - Bet ON the Brewers at home - Fade the Brewers on the road!! Seems to simple.

T.B. Not the more run producing team and take away their DH and insert a pitcher they become even less. On the plus side the Brewers have Narveson a career .250 hitter!

The Crew had a big advantage at home vs. AL teams.

Niemann - forget him for a second - the T.B. bull pen is hurting with over work. They have been very very good but they have pitched a lot of innings in the last 10 days! Plus one for the Crew.

The Brewers are not THAT bad. and on a side point St. Louis was dealt a HUGE blow with Pujols out for 2 months!!

Nutshell just because I don't feel it - Brewers -135 T.B. just does not have teh fire power and especially vs. LHP.

Niemann is the kind of pitcher Brewers like. nuff said.

No Herrera - we win!!! Simple game

2011-06-19T09:05:00.000-05:00

No Herrera - we win!!! Simple game.

Sunday 6/19/11

Nice game last night but I did not see it as I was a the Madison Mallards game but of note. . .

Not often you get a lead-off unearned Home Run! Plus - for the 1st time since 2003 that a team has started the game with back to back home runs twice in a year!

I think the Brewers take the series today and shock the non-believers!

Wakefield - big knuckleball flyball pitchers, gives up home runs and has done poorly at home. He has really struggled vs. right handed hitters of which the Brewers have many of. He tossed 119 pitches in his last outing which was about 25 more then any of his previous outings. The key here is wind - knuckleballers love wind to make their ball flutter, unless it's blowing in. I believe the wind will be blowing IN which is good for the brewers.

Losing Crawford hurts the Sox as his replacement is much better vs. LHP hitting .200 vs. RHP vs .212 vs. LHP but his SLG drops . . .well . . . there is no SLG for Camron actually.

Gallardo has given up 2 or less runs in 7 of his last 8 starts and a 1.33 ERA on the road.

I have to run - so in a nutshell.

Brewers +100 and they take the series!

Cheers I'll be on Sportsline live chat for the Brewers game (at work - LOL) Gotta run!!! Say Hi if you log on!!

Danny Herrera is not the magic we thought he was

2011-06-18T09:43:00.001-05:00

Danny Herrera is not the magic we thought he was.

WOW - can a guy come in and have a worse two games with a new team? NO - he can't and now he is gone - BYE BYE - SO LONG - please accept a copy of our home game on the way out the door.

Record 37-32 +2.61 Lost 5 in a row!
--------------------------------

The Brewers had a real chance last night but two things happened. One was Marcum - didn't see that one coming - hip flexer?? hip flexers are a group of skeletal muscles that act to flex the femur (thigh bone) onto the lumbo-pelvic complex, i.e., pull the knee upward. He pulled it.

That was the 1st problem - then the kicker was that amazing DP which killed a huge inning for the Brewers and at that exact moment - the entire game changed. Pedroia is fielding Gomez of 2B. Anyone notice Slumpy McGoo has 6 RBIs in the last 4 games?

Brewer 9-15 when no home runs are hit.
----------------------------------
Today - I just can not see the Brewers ever being +160.

Jon Lester is a LHP which the gives the Brewers problems but he has been having problems at home. He is 3-2 in games started at home and and 6-3 on the road. He he has been getting hit at night. He has a 4.83 ERA at Fenway.

Wolf has been outstanding this year and Boston does a little worse vs LHP. The Sox lost Crawford which only hurts them fielding as he is an OUTSTANDING fielder but horrible vs. LHP.

Both bull pens are rested except for the Brewers long relievers and the Boston closer.

Brewers need so innings out of Wolf today.

I've lost what 5 in a row!

The Brewer pitching is not as bad as you might think. A lot can be put on our hero Danny Herrera who single handedly, in clutch situation gave up home runs. His ERA was 21.60 and does not include the 4 runners on base that scored when he entered the game. In fact he is sort of a closer FOR THE OTHER TEAM. He came in and the opponents basically won the game after he was done!

Brewers +160

We have an Oppertunity

2011-06-17T09:51:00.000-05:00

Jumping off the bandwagon.

WOW I got swept in Chicago! I could not be more perfect in my ineptitude. First 4 game losing streak.

The Brewers hit 2 home runs and in games with 2+ HRs the Brewers are now 19-5.

Record 37=31 +3.61

ON TO BOSTON and wow - can we step on a hornets nest? Why stop - let's give it a kick.

This is a super duper critical 26 games for the Brewers. When the schedule came up this part of the schedule was circled in big red letters. If the Crew can make it to July 10th, just before the AS game and we are still in site of 1st place - we are good to go.

OK tonight! We have an opportunity and there is a little trend working with us. "FADE the worst pitcher on a 1st place team".

Marcum vs. Lackey.

Lackey has a well deserved 7.41 ERA. He is a Fly Ball pitcher that gives up home runs. He is worse at home and worse at night. He has an On Base of .379 and players steal at will against him. And he has a 5 year $82 million contract.

If the Brewers can not hit this guy . . oh man!!!

I'm not even going to mention the raw numbers for the Red Sox - they are unbelievable (OK OK .337 4.78R 5.44 RBI). Look at it in these terms. In the last 20 games the Red Sox are 1st in average, 1st in Runs, 1st in HR, 1st in OB, only 4 errors, highest OBA, Highest SLG, 2nd most walks. However - remember when the Brewers came home after a great road trip and were flat?

Boston had a GREAT road trip and come home to the Stanley Cup euphoria. Will they be flat? I think so!

They go against Marcum who is the Brewer ace. So we have the #5 pitcher vs. the #1. The Crew are road dogs at +120.

This to me was a no-brainer play for the dog.

Yesterdays game was ONE game involving 3 pitchers, the not entire pen or starting staff. The Brewer bats are still very potent. Fenway is a not a big HR park. Just enough for the big boys to hit HR's and all the rest doubles. There will be LOTS of doubles this weekend.

Easy pick - Brewers +120

Going to a split

2011-06-16T08:09:00.000-05:00

I'll tell ya - if I was collecting baseball cards I would be snarfing up rookie Starlin Castro cards like there is no tomorrow. I remember watching Yount when he was 20 and Griffy Jr when he was 20. Castro will be around for a long long time and someone I listen to once told me that when a 20 year old plays in the Majors s a starter the guy will become great! He not only has natural talent already but has 6 to 7 years to get even better.

So what did we learn last night? We learned why Hawkins has been played so sparingly. They were nursing his shoulder, making sure it was stable before he has a full work load. We also learned that Hawkins and Roenicke had a one on one which sounds like we will now see more of Hawkins in future games. Put me in coach.

Not having a great wagering series so far - 0-3.

Record 37-30 +4.81

Greinke vs. Garza.

Garza is the kind of pitcher the Brewers typically have some problems with being neither a GB or FB pitcher and not giving up a lot of HR's THIS YEAR. But is this an anomaly? In the past he is an EXTREME FB pitching giving up HRs right and left. He walks a lot of people and that gives the Crew an extra weapon, more people on base. Another flaw is that he does not go deep in games meaning the Cubs bullpen will be in play and there is only a 53% chance the Cub pen will have success (compared to the Brewers 61% chance).

Garza averages just under 6 innings per start giving their bull pen a full 3 innings and the Cub pen has an ERA of late of 4.57. The Cubs are 2-8 in games Garza has started. I'm not sold Garza is as good as he has been so far this year.

Greinke has been pitching excellent and the Crew are 7-1 in games he has started and I feel he is now getting into his season mode. The guy has walked ONLY 7 so far this year and 60 Ks? That's unheard of!! The Cubs only have a .279 On Base % ANYWAY so he is not taking anything away the Cubs already don't have (did that makes sense? I get dizzy when I read that sentence). But the Cub offense is not really a worry.

The CUB top of the order is hitting .242 with 2.23 Runs and 2.08 RBs per game lately. The Brewers Top of the Order .275 with 3.23 runs and 3.15 RBI's. And of course they hit a Home Run last night and won.

30-17 with a HR
9-13 without a HR

Simple game to call here.

Brewer bats can out muscle Cub bats with ease.

Brewers -124 and pretty confidant.

BTW - Lucroy is hitting .169 the last 20 games! We will see Kottaras behind the plate today, I like his bat.

Roenicke - Not all bad calls!

2011-06-15T08:18:00.001-05:00

I suppose you could blame the Brewer offense the last 2 nights for making me lose money as the Brewers SHOULD have been up by at least 7 runs by the 4th inning last night. But when the offense does not click you need to take control and not mess things up.

The last two nights Coach Roenicke has FAILED to use the Bull Pen properly and it's cost us 2 games. Two nights ago he had Wolf, a HORRIBLE bunter but good hitter try a suicide squeeze. FAIL. Then in a 0-0 game he brings in Loe who has proven that when he pitch's 3 days in a row, that 3rd day will be FUBR! And he proved it again. FAIL!!

Then last night, since he can not use Loe in a perfect spot he brings in rookie Estrada, not Hawkins, not Dillard (who has been great). Of course hind site is wonderful but . . . .

THEN! THEN! - . . . . I first I was miffed at the final play logic, walk Castro and set up for a DP, right? However - Castro is a huge ground ball hitter, much more then Ramirez. If he walks Castro there is a 64% chance Ramirez hits a FB and win the game. Don't listen to the talking heads, Ramirez does not hit into THAT many DPs.

The correct play WAS to pitch to Castro as there is a 56% chance for a Ground Ball and an out at HOME. I apologize to Coach for calling him a bad name last night on that final play.

Today - I was really hoping the Brewers would have won the 1st two games because tonight will be tough. They do not do well vs. Zambrano!

In the past 3 years ZAM is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA vs Milwaukee and with the wind blowing in tonight I don't see many HR's. Plus Zam is very good in night games with an ERA more then 2 runs lower at night then in the day!

Chris Narveson - what do you do with this guy - which pitcher will show up today. In HIS last 3 years he has 21 innings vs the Cubs and 22 Ks. He shut out the Cubs earlier this year.

SO - the question is. Are the Brewers in a road funk? The Cubs lack offense, the Brewers lack road offense.

Brewers are slight dogs tonight on a cold windy night in Chicago with the wind blowing in! WTF!!

The Brewers are 9-13 when they do not hit a Home Run and 29-17 when they have at least one dinger. So the question is, will there be a HR tonight? Zambrano has given up 3 HR's in his last 60 Brewer innings!

sadly - I have to play the Cubs at -115 - I hope I lose!

Win Game two and place the right bet!

2011-06-14T08:29:00.001-05:00

I guess when the linemakers say 50/50 they mean it'll be close.

OH - on Sportsline live Chat - a new name for McGehee - Slumpy McGoo!

A couple comments - WHY WHY WHY pitch Loe 3 days in a row. COME ON MAN? Been there, done that, don't do it again.

Squeeze play? COME ON MAN. This was a case where something that has like a 30% chance of success was successful once to often. Plus - KNOW YOUR PITCHER!! Wolf is a terrible bunter!!!! Yea - he can hit but he is a TERRIBLE bunter. Coach - you have all the stats - you should know that. If I know it YOU should know it.

Record 37-29 +5.96

Tuesday 6/14/11

Randy Wells takes on Gallardo tonight.

Wells does not have a lot in his bag of tricks and once batters have seen him a couple times in a game he sort of comes undone. HE has been makeing his outs with Flyballs and is tossing 2 HRs a game while walking 5 per 9 innings while averaging 4.5 innings per start.

He got worse last year and is even MORE worse this year. Brewers are going to score tonight!

The Brewers - MAN their starting staff is wonderful!

Gallardo does well vs. the Cubs and is 6-2 in games he has started and 2-2 in Chicago. this game is all about the pitching today and if Gallardo pitches average the Brewers win.

I don't know what the Over/Under is but I would be taking the Over on this one.

BTW - I was so proud of myself last night as I picked the UNDER. The problem was when I looked at my account it did not seem right. DAMN IT - I picked Cinci/LA to go UNDER - why is it whenever you make a mistake - it NEVER wins!!

I can't find a reason to bet against the Brewers

2011-06-13T12:14:00.001-05:00

Monday 6/13/11

Record 37-28 +7.00

On to the Cubs and I can not find a real reason to bet on the Cubs. The linemakers say the game is a 50/50 split but I'm not seeing it.

First I had to get in-tune with the Cubbies so here are the raw stats coming into the series for the last 10 games.

Top of the Order
Brewers .266 3.10 Runs 3.40 RBI's (this is about the highest the Crew have been this year)
Cubbies .241 2.20 runs 1.80 RBIs

Pitching Starters ERA / Pen ERA
Brewers 3.34 / 2.70
Cubbies 5.92 / 4.46

Back end of the Pen could be tired with Loe and Axford both going 2 days in a row. The rest of the pen have had 3 days off.

For the Cubs set-up man Marshall (the Loe for the Cubs) is tired.

In the last 20 games Cubs are 5-15 Brewers are 15-5

AVG - Brewers .256 Cubs .236
On Base Crew .316 Cubs .281
Slugging Crew .454 Cubs .354
Pitching Brewers 3.10 Cubs 5.13

Home Runs Brewers 30 Cubs 11
Runs Crew 101 Cubs 69

in every facet of the game the Brewers are way way better, yet the Brewers are -104 only?

Why??

Wolf vs. Dempster

Dempster 50/50 GB/fB pitcher that gives up a SHIT load of homeruns! He is 8-6 in games he has started with a 5.96 ERA and in the past 3 years he is 11-1 vs. Milwaukee which is probably why the game is EVEN. He does VERY well against the Brewers.

Wolf has been pitching GREAT. I looked at the Cubs vs LHP and they are slightly better but pathetic to slightly less pathetic still has the word pathetic in it.

So while Dempster might have the Brewers number the Brewers are just red hot and going on the road to a little band box ballpark won't stop them.

The Cubs are coming off THEIR road trip from hell playing very good teamS, St.Louis (were in 1st place), Cincinnati (1ST place last year) and Philly(1st place) and now play Milwaukee (1st place). OUCH!! talk about a nightmare stretch of games. OH wait - the Yankees come to Wrigley after the Brewers (insert evil laugh).

I gotta love the Brewers at -104

BTW - in 7 of Fielders last 9 HRs he has given the Brewers the lead. One HR only tied the game while the other HR was a meaningless 420 foot bomb!

Doesn't it seem like we have had Randy Wolf for more the 1 full year? HE is a FB pitcher that has also given up HRs which is a concern but in a Home Run duel I'll take the Brewers in a 50/50 game any day!

GO CREW!! -104

No brooms today

2011-06-12T10:21:00.001-05:00

Tough game to call today.

Record 37-27 +8.00

Nice victory last night. Greinke took away the base on balls from the cards and it worked last night. When a team has a key part of their offense taken away the offense struggles.

Today I sort of see this with the Brewers. Jake Westbrook is an EXTREME ground ball pitchers that does not give up home runs. Now typically what happens is that the big guys like Fielder will still hit HR's but the peripheral players like Lucroy and Weeks and dare I sat McGehee will not add that "extra" homerun.

Westbrook's problem is control. He walks a lot of guys. The good news is that he is good vs. LHB but poor vs. RHB! I'm not sure the Brewers are a good club when it comes to pitchers that are all over the place with control. They like pitchers that pitch to contact, not nibblers! Westbrook has problems holding runners on base so watch for the Crew to steal to stay out of the DP today!

So I feel that the Crew might have a problem today. Westbrook takes away the long but but GIVES up more people on base BUT, gets helped out by throwing a lot of DP balls! The Brewers have enough double play players (Braun, Betancorp, Gomez, Lucroy, McGehee) that can take some of those walks off base real fast and Westbrook will give them lots of opportunity to hit into a DP.

Marcum has been outstanding, the guy has not had a bad outing YET!! So I'm not concerned with the Cards not scoring a lot of runs but more how many will the Brewers score.

Do I think the Brewers will win? Yes I do.

But the question is, is -153 too steep to pay? I believe it is!

That is why I'm going with the cards at +138 today.

On a side bet I'm also playing the UNDER 8.5 for a tad/fun amount.

Brewers got it going for sure and I can totally see a sweep but I'm not paying -153 against an extreme ground ball pitcher. AND, come to think of it, the Sunday line-up! Seems Sundays are always a little weird with the lineups.

Got THAT One Wrong

2011-06-11T07:07:00.000-05:00

Sometimes things just go bad. At least the Brewers won so I'm all good!

Record 36-27 +7.00

Carpenter vs. Greinke

Carpenter could be in for a long night. Yea - he is a ground ball pitcher but he has had problems vs. the current Brewers in the past, This year his day/night ERA is rather lopsided even if you take out the 4IP 8ER game in Arizona. 2.92/4.57

He has pitched very well of late but his last 4 AWAY games he has a 5.26 ERA.

So there are three things - Bad at night, bad on the road, bad against the Brewers. His average Game Score on the road is 43 and at home 58.

In the 7 games Greinke has started the Crew have won 6 of those with an average Game Score of 53. He has continually gotten better and is going longer in games.

One thing that strikes me about this game is that St.Louis depends on walks to get people on base, it's one of their weapons. Greinke does not walk people so the Brewers take away a big part of their game.

Milwaukee at a nice -125 seems like a good deal as I think the Brewers win this one 55.6% of the time!

Brewers -125

It's Throw Down Weekend!

2011-06-10T08:34:00.001-05:00

Last night game was sort of an easy call when I saw the line. I felt it was all up to Gallardo and if he could hold the Mets to under 3 runs or less because the crew would not score.

Sadly I won my bet.

Record 36-26 +8.04

Tonight we have the 1st of a big series and I feel this is a pretty simple game to predict - Cards Win.

Raw numbers.

Top of the line up last 10 games

Brewers .255 2.7 runs 3.00 RBIs
Cards .266 3.6 runs 3.10 RBIs

Starting / Bull Pen ERA / Pen Innings last 10 games

Brewers 4.11 / 3.27 / 33
Cards 4.81 / 3.68 / 37

Last 20 games

Brewers 14-6
Cards 13-7

Batting Average Brewers .243 Cards .260
On Base% Brewers .306 Cards .329
Slugging Brewers .430 Cards .411
Runs Brewers 94 Cards 91
Home Runs Brewers 29 Cards 19
Errors Brewers 13 Cards 5
ERA Brewers 3.12 Cards 3.94

Pretty even on most counts.

Pitching for the Cards is Kyle Lohse the ground ball pitching ace of the Cards staff. Not much to say about this guy except he does not give up home runs, pitches to contact and pitches a lot of innings!

The one thing the Cards, I feel, will have problems with down the road is that they are using the pen a LOT. Not just the last 10 games but all year. Seeing 4 guys running to the mound from the bullpen is not uncommon at all. In fact in 6 of their last 10 games they have used 5 or more pitchers a game. This is going to be a problem at some point for the Cards. Not that they are pitching a ton of innings but their pen is warming up a lot every day.

Anyway - Lohse will have a good game and hold the peripheral Brewers down. Oddly McGehee is very good against Lohse.

Narveson gets the nod for the Brewers who has had a terrible time vs. Cards batters who hit .325 and slug .550 against the south paw and while the Cards are slightly worse against lefties, not THAT much.

In Narvesons last 3 outings he has failed to make it to the 6th inning and his last game where he went 5.33 innings and gave up 4 runs was his best! GULP!!

Half of his innings have been at night. He has a Day/Night ERA split is 3.57/6.37.

Give this 1st game to the Cards - I feel the Crew will win the 2nd and 3rd game!

Cards -104

Tony Plush - Hero

2011-06-09T07:36:00.000-05:00

OK - how many of you did not see the ending of last nights game! I had it on but was not paying attention so I did not see the 8th inning- only the 9th. What did I tell you about the Met bullpen.

Record 35-26 +6.47

I'm not sure who I'm picking yet in tonight's game and hopefully it'll be clearer as I type.

Niese vs. Gallardo

Niese is a ground ball pitching lefty - two qualities the Brewers dislike, except for the fact that he has pitched 5 innings vs. the Brewers and given up 17 hits and 11 Earned runs!

Niese can go deep into a game to save the bullpen.

Gallardo has pitched 6 strong games in a row and if you look at this years stats both pitchers are about the same. Both ground ball pitchers that give up 1 HR per 10 innings.

The Mets top of the order is still hitting .318 in the last 12 games and run production is pretty equal for for both teams, just different ways to do it.

I think the key here is that Niese will take away the long ball from the Brewers with his GB's but Gallardo will not take anything away from the Mets as they have no big HR threats.

Knowing that the Crew do have problems scoring vs. LHP and seeing the price so high I gotta go with the Mets at +157. I think the Brewers will win but I can't pay -175 vs. a ground ball pitching lefty!

Met's +157

Didn't see a 2-1 game coming!

2011-06-08T08:10:00.002-05:00

BTW - this blog now can be read on your Mobil much better!

I was not expecting THAT kind of a game! I was sad to see Estrada come in in the 7th? Hawkins - NOT Estrada! Hawkins, Loe, Axford - that is how it works coach - don't get all fancy!

I picked the Brewers yesterday knowing that -185 was a pretty steep price to pay. Yet they have been playing so well at home AND on the road that I just could not play the dog. Linemakers got me on that one.

record 34-25 +5.47 that one hurt!

Oh there were warning signs that I chose to ignore. Brewers are not wonderful vs. lefties and I just "had a feeling" there was a let down coming.

A supposedly more even match today between Pelfey and Wolf. THIS game should be -185 and yesterday should have been -165.

Pelfry in the last 3 years has pitched 347 innings in New York and 241 innings on the road. His ERA is Home = 3.16 Road = 5.47. He is an even GB/FB pitcher that will hang a few during the game and pitches to contact and here is the kicker. He has 4 pitches and three of them are fastballs - the Brewers love fastballs! His other pitch is a change-up that he rarely uses!

This is a guy you bet ON at home and AGAINST on the road! I have not seen to many pitchers that REALLY need big ball parks and I'm surprised the Brewers have not traded for him (like Suppan who I HATED just for this reason St.Louis to Milwaukee? Come on man?)

Anyway - Pelfry's AWAY Game Score average is 28.3 and his HOME Game Score Average is 59.6.

Wolf on the other hand likes Miller Park and against the powerless Mets should have a good day. When Wolf does not give up a Home Run his game score is a WHOPPING Hall Of Fame rate of 69.8. I don't see the Mets who have hit 4 home runs in the last 20 games to hit any out tonight!

The Mets are poor-er hitting on the road and poor-er against Lefties.

Brewers have hit HR's in 8 straight games and in fact have more home runs in the last THREE games then the Mets do in the last 20 games.

Brewers vs. Lefties have a RC/27 of 3.86 and vs. Righties 4.86

Brewers -165

And on my normal anti anti Gomez moment. I was on live chat on www.sportsline.com watching the game and commenting (it's fun try it - although I golf tonight - I'll be on tomorrow night) and I told Met fan in the 1st inning to watch Gomez as he is a human highlight in the outfield. Never mind his hitting problems, he makes up for it on defense.

Well, he saved 4 runs last night - FOUR! Take his batting average and add perhaps half a hit per game because that is what he saves and that hit he is saving is normally a double.

Yea we all love Morgon but Morgon is not half the outfielder Gomez is, Morgon has no arm and does not cover as much ground. His Zone Rating is much lower then Gomez. I feel blessed to watch Gomez on defense as I have never seen ANYBODY do what he does!

Who knows how long he will be a Brewer so instead of getting frustrated at his batting take delight in his fielding.

Brewers getting noticed all of a sudden

2011-06-07T08:51:00.001-05:00

Record 34-25 +7.32
Record when betting on the Brewers AND they are the fav
26-11 +12.52

Bring on the Mets!

WELL - looks like the linemakers are finally noticing the Brewers. I've been waiting for the lines to start getting a little taller and the Brewers are -185 today.

Capuano vs. Marcum

Raw Numbers

Top of the Order for the last 10 games
Brewers .274 2.80 Runs 3.10 RBIS
Mets .343 3.40 Runs 2.60 RBIs

Pitching - Starters / Pen ERA
Brewers 4.23 / 1.69
Mets 3.42 / 9.67 a VERY consistent 9.67 HORRIBLE bull pen

Last 20 games Brewers 15-5 Mets 10-10
Avg Mets .281 Brewers .249
On Base Pct Mets .338 Brewers .314
Slugging Brewers .448 Mets .366
Runs Brewers 92 Mets 80
Home runs Brewers 26 Mets 4 (FOUR)
Team ERA Brewers 2.84 Mets 4.47

So on offense we have a great hitting, very weak power team against a good hitting BIG power team.

And Pitching we have a very very good pitching team against an OK starting staff with a truly hideous bull pen.

Capuano is averaging just under 6 innings per start, Gives up flyballs AND home runs and has lost 6 of his last 7 start. He has major problems against Righties and the only good thing for him is that he is in Milwaukee which over the last 3 years has been a tough park for right handed hitters to hit home runs in. So be expecting Josh Wilson and Gomez to be connecting again LOL

He has an average game score of 47

The Mets on the road have a 3.77 RC/27 compared to at Home 4.98

Marcum's problem comes when he has turned the line-up over 3 times and opposing batters start figuring out his pitches. That 3rd time through has been the bug-a-boo! Otherwise? GOLD!!

His home games have been pretty average with a above MLB average game score of 53 (on the road 65).

The Mets steal bases but not as much as the league leading Brewers (last 20 games) and we all know Cappy is AMAZING holding runners on! Marcum is not bad himself but no one is on Cappys range.

So while the Brewers are a VERY LOFTY -180 It's deserved.

I got the Brewers -180

Finding the brooM!

2011-06-06T10:00:00.000-05:00

Yea - that was great! No worries about losing my wager but winning the game! That will teach me for betting AGAINST the Brewers.

Monday 6/6/2011 D-Day

Record 33-25 +6.25

I'm going for the sweep! After all - the Brewers have the best record in the Majors since May 9th!!

STATS

Top of the order last 12 games
Brewers .284 3.33 runs 3.42 RBIs 28 Home runs in the last 20 games
Marlins .283 2.75 runs 2.17 RBIs 18 Home runs in the last 20 games

Brewers just have better hitting and are winning games they lost on previous road trips.

Javier Vazquez is pitching for Florida and he is a big fly ball pitcher and gives up home runs at an alarming rate. The ONLY time he is a good pitcher is with bases with empty. Out of the stretch he totally blows. Another thing to watch is that the 2nd time around the order is much worse for him. His 6.00 ERA is pretty much deserved.

Greinke has still not showed his REAL full game self but his last two starts have been good! You might say his last game was a struggle but if you look at it he did not collapse (like Narveson does). Greinke's problem has been giving up the long ball and the Marlins in Florida are not a long ball club with only a .378 Slugging at home (which is actually better then the Brewers Road slugging) and less then 1 HR a game (Brewers are better).

But for the Brewers - they have the #1 pitching staff in the last 20 games with a 3.04 ERA. Florida 4.44.

Brewers are on a roll and -130 on the road seems good.

A note about Axford. We have all noticed that he seems to be struggling but looking at the real numbers it's really not him at all. This year he is striking out more batters and walking just a few more. The big deal with him is that his defense behind him is much worse then last year! He's not getting any help at all.

But typically it all comes back so I feel he has had some bad luck behind him. The BIG thing, the only thing that worries me is that he's giving up more extra base hits but in the grand scheme of things - it's all good.

This is what kind of closer he is. Walks and strikeouts!

Brewers -130

Not feelin it

2011-06-03T08:18:00.000-05:00

You know - the linemakers in baseball are pretty good. In the NFL you can exploit the linemakers as they have to adjust the lines to the squares. The betting public in the NFL is pretty stupid and you can exploit that.

In baseball 90% of the handicappers are using some sort of number based betting system and are trying to beat THE BEST number based betting system. So typically the line you see is real real close to realism. It's tough to beat.

So Wednesdays game was, according to the linemakers, pretty much a 50/50 game and as it turned out! They were right!

Record 32-23 +7.92

I made a small change in my book keeping as I realized that a +100 is actually a dog play. 50/50 would be -105 with the dime line. So the two times I bet +100 and lost that goes to the DOGS.

Tonight the Brewers play the Marlins in a pitcher friendly park where no one hits homeruns!

I'll tell ya right now I'm playing the Marlins at -125. If the Brewers could have had a better line I might have thought about it but . . . they didn't.

Ricky Nolasco has been tough at home, tough at night, tough against righties. His average game score at home is 58. Brewers won't hit a HR and Rickey is very very good at holding runners on base (Brewers in the last 20 games have stolen the most bases in the NL)

Randy Wolf has not had good luck in Florida and has never pitched more the 6 innings out of 10 games. He's 4-6.

Both pens are rested.

What bothers me is that Braun, Fielder and McGhee have not hit ANY homeruns in 8 games and Sun Life Park is a tough place to go yard.

On the bright side Wolf has two pretty good games in a row (both at home).
But - bottom line

Marlins -125

I'm also playing some side money fading the Twins and I'll do this until I lose a couple units! The Twins are pretty much playing with their AAA team now with 8 guys in the DL.

Tomorrow I won't have a big blog as I'll be n the road about 6:00 in the morning - I'll post my play and that's about it.

Cheers

It's a deal!!!

2011-06-01T07:39:00.002-05:00

I was asked on my blog

How about an update on how opposing PIT & ARIZ on the road is doing season-to-date? Are you taking a financial interest?

Just taking a glance The Pirates seem to be totally blowing offensively at home with a 2.60 RC/27 and 4.04 on the road. They have a pretty tough ball park for Right handed hitters. At home they hit a home run every 62.6 ABs while on the road it's 35.5. Pitching ERA is Home 3.00 and Road 3.82 so it's certainly a ballpark thing.

But before I go farther - I do not believe there really is such as thing as a team that "can not win on the road" or "can only win at home".

In MLB there is about a 4% home field advantage from playing at home and and what you see during a year is just a small sample of games played. . I read once that to REALLY know what team is better you would have to play about 300 games in baseball and 140 games in the NFL to take away all the luck factor.

I'm constantly hearing about the Brewers problems on the road but that is because it's the easy thing to say. Let's look at their road problems and find better excuses for losing.

Opening series vs. Cinci 0-3 remember snow? Remember how I said the Brewers suck in cold weather? Perfect example.

Then they go on the road and are 4-4 including winning the series in Phillie! No road problems there.

But what is causing all of the hand wringing is the 2-8 trip where in the 8 games there Brewers lost the AVERAGE Starting Pitcher ERA was near 2.50. So you have a team in a little funk going against some of the best pitching in the NL game after game.

And since that trip the Brewers are 3-3 on the road! I don't buy it that the Brewers can not win on the road. It's just an easy excuse. We are looking at a small set of numbers and trying to make a prediction.

HOWEVER - I just did some crunching and use this for what it's worth.

In Brewer victories they hit 1.3 homes runs a game. In Brewer losses they hit 0.7 home runs! The problem here is that I don't know what the league average is. This is like saying that the Brewers are 140-1 when winning by 2 in the ninth! I say WOW but then I could see the league average is 138-2 so - no big deal.

ANYWAY - tonight's game, Marcum vs. Leake.

Marcum has pitched 3 sub par games this year and each time he has come back with two stellar games. In fact he is almost on a 2 on 1 off trend! today is an on! He has pitched GREAT on the road and if you take away his 1st outing in his other 5 road games he has a 0.52 ERA.

Leake has some problems with the long ball at home giving up 12 home runs in 77 innings in Great American Ballpark and he also walks a lot of guys in his home ball park.

The Brewers have drawn the 2nd most walks in the NL in the last 20 games and the Reds have allowed the MOST home runs in the last 20 games. The reds are 2nd to last in striking out opponents and the Brewers are near the top in NOT striking out! So the Brewers will be making contact!

The Brewers are hitting better, scoring more runs, winning more games and have better pitching with a rested bull pen.

YET - The Crew are +100. This is a deal!!

Try again

2011-05-31T12:32:00.004-05:00

FAIL - And what did we ("I") learn last night? I learned that the Brewers have some problem against LHP. I learned not to trust Narveson.

Record 31-22 +7.92

SO tonight is game #2 on the road and I really do not think last night was a road loss. It was just a loss that happened to be on the road. TONIGHT will be a road loss if the Brewers lose.

I'm 23-11 when I believe the Brewers will win AND they are Favorites

Today they are Favs and I believe they will win - here is why!

Greinke vs. an unknown dude who has pitched 4 horrible games in the majors in his life making his first start.

The guy walks a ton and is a RHP. Greinke is still in pre season mode and could still give up runs but he had his best game of the year his last outing.

Anybody notice Braun lately? in the last 7 games he and 6 doubles and a triple.

I'm going to make this short - I'm picking the Brewers because of Greinke vs. unknown walking dude. If they lose tonight I'm back on the "they suck on the road bandwagon" but I still feel that part of this is an anomaly, as is the home record.

ya can't compare averages as one is all home games and one is all away games so you have two teams that like to score. One is going against an All-Star Cy Young pitcher and the other a guy that can not find home plate.

After all the Crew do have the highest slugging and 2nd highest OB in the NL in the last 20 games - they are near the top in almost all categories including base on balls!!

Brewers -125

On the Road again!

2011-05-30T08:08:00.000-05:00

Here we go! Get's a little tougher now!

Record 31-21 +8.92

Cinci has lost 10 of it's last 12 games and mostly because of it's starting pitching with it's 7.10 ERA. Travis Wood will be pitching game #1. The Crew lost to him April 2nd but that game seemed to be an anomaly for him as 38% of his outs are ground balls and he was 50/50 vs. the Crew, he is an extreme Flyball pitcher and it was his BEST game of the year.

As I mentioned yesterday the Brewer bats are at their worst early in the season. However they are also not the best vs. LHP, however Woods has not been THAT good and does not go deep in the game.

The Cinci pen is extremely warn out. It as bad luck that they had a complete game last night but they are VERY tired!

The last time Narveson pitched against Cinci he was throwing up and went like 2 or 3 innings and got rocked. Cinci this year is crushing LHP but with few at bats and the last few years has seen them more even Righty vs. Lefty.

The Cinci top of the order is .248 2.80 runs and 2.4 RBIs the Brewers in same number of games are .270 3.40 runs and 3.30 RBIs

I believe the Brewers are a different team then they were since their last big road trip. They proved it in LA and SD when they split without hitting a HR in those extreme pitcher friendly Parks and Great American Ball Park is particularly friendly to Right handed batters.

Woods in limited starts in Cinci has done poorly compared to on the road and the Brewers WILL see a fair amount of the Cinci pen which, while tired has not been all that bad. Another thing of note is that half of Woods innings are in daylight where he does much better! Night game tonight.

Narveson has been keeping the ball in the ball park this year and at worst will be able to match Wood.

I believe we have two teams pretty evenly matched except for the bottom lines! Brewers are 16-5 in last 21 while Cinci is 2-12 in last 14. However Brewers were mainly at home and Cinci was mainly on the road.

Still - unless the hot team proves they are only a home team I'll go with the team with the better bats! Narveson is hot or cold and maybe Coach Roenicke will have a quick hook if he see's Narvo struggling early. The reds do not have that option.

Paying -122 on a 2-12 team seems like too much. I like the Brew Crew chances.

Brewers as dogs +112

Heating Up

2011-05-29T08:47:00.000-05:00

Called that one yesterday - said yesterdays game would be decided by the bullpens! BINGO!!

Record 30-21 +7.92

I heard a guy mention that the the Brewers needed warm weather to get their bats going. I always hear crap like that and then investigate and see it's total malarkey! Not this time. Look at the OPS for the last 3 years for the Top of the line-up Brewers

Name April May June July August Sept

Weeks .773 .758 .866 .894 .744 .806
Hart .816 .816 .873 .810 .743 .698
Braun .909 .950 .839 .836 .964 .843
Fielder .795 .909 1.121 .971 .882 .937
Mcgehee .907 .781 .854 .758 .842 .778

AVG .840 .842 .910 .853 .835 .812

June seems to be the best month for the brewer hitters - so my thinking is that if you play the over/under in June you should be playing more OVERS.

Today "we" play the rubber game vs. the Giants, Gallardo and Cain.

Cain is a real good pitcher and once again he is going against Gallardo. These two have matched up before with the scores of 3-2 and 1-5. Cain is 2-3 over all in games started vs. the Giants.

Gallardo is 4-2 vs. the Giants and in 5 of the 6 games the UNDER has won. So we have two very good pitchers. Cain has never given up a Home Run to the current Brewers which is a bad thing but he does give up doubles and hits. Gallardo is very very good against the current Giants who only have a .629 OPS (Brewers have a .772 OPS vs. Cain).

Cain's average Game Score is 56 in his last 5 starts vs. .470 Pct teams.
Gallardo's average Game Score is 62 in his last 5 starts vs. .490 Pct teams.

Cain will pitch 7 innings today giving the Giant bull pen a break which is lucky for San Fran as their bull pen sucks at the moment. They have pitched ineffectively in 88% of their last 11 games (losing the game last night).

In that same amount of time the brewers have a 38% ineffective rating which in the overall scheme of things is fine. Their last 4 games have been very good!

Offensively the Giants are in a world of hurt. Top of the Order is .262 with only 2.25 runs and 1.92 RBI's compared to the Brewers .250 but 3.50 Runs and 3.50 RBI's in the last 4 series.

This being a Sunday game NORMALLY you would see the "B" squad but Lucroy rested yesterday and Morgon should play Center. Not sure about Hart who was sick last night and you might see Council at SS as he hits Cain pretty well.

So the download is that you have two very good pitchers with the big difference being the Brewer bats. One Home Run and the Brewers win this one.

Should be low scoring.

The picks get tougher tomorrow as the Brewers play the reeling Reds who are on a road trip from hell. Their bullpen is almost totally different group of guys from the last time we played them and are totally exhausted. On this road trip the starters are AVERAGING 4.67 innings per start and they have played a 19 inning and a 12 inning game.

In their last 4 games the bull pen is AVERAGING 116 pitches per game (average is upper 30s). But - I'm looking ahead!

Cheers and good luck.

I hate THIS game

2011-05-28T11:10:00.000-05:00

WOW - I think we nailed that one on the head and lost because some dude I never heard of slammed us! Very disappointing and winning seems so much more enjoyable. I hate Brandon Crawford.

Record 29-21 +6.92

Two lefties go at it today and LHP vs. LHP the Brewers have a slight edge. RC/27 (Runs Created per 27 outs) 4.08 vs. 3.72. Pitching is Sanchez vs Wolf where Sanchez has a slight edge. However Wolf is 3-1 with a 1.00 ERA in five starts against the Giants since 2009.

On the other side the Giants have a 6 game winning streak in Miller Park but Sanchez is 1-4 vs. Milwaukee.

The Giants did not really impress me a lot last night offensively but got the job done. . . . . . .you know I'm having a lot of problems with this game, man the line seems a tad high for the Brewers at -140 as I just do not trust Wolf at the moment but I look at the stats and realize that his penchant for flyballs and home runs should not be a problem against a team that NORMALLY can not hit a homerun.

But then Sanchez has been pitching so well and I'm struggling here trying not to be a homer and seeing so many conflicting trends.

The crews home stand has been all against poor teams so I have to take their hot bats and cool them off a little.

Frankly the words are just not coming out today and I don't like the line of -140 for the Brewers. The magic might have left Miller Park temporarily but I'm still picking the Crew at a lofty -140 - WITH MASSIVE RESERVATIONS. Picking the Brewers would be too easy and with Wolf being up and down and the Giants getting a monkey off their back it seems the momentum MIGHT have swung to San Fran. But . . . I'm still on the Brewers.

On a side note the Brewer pen is in great shape and has a 2.11 Run average in the last 10 games while the Giant pen who the talking heads on TV were all giddy over but I'm not seeing it. 3.96 Run Average and a 70% failure rate in the last 10 games compared to a 40% failure rate for the Brewers.

Sanchez only goes 5.7 innings per start so the pen WILL coming into play and I feel this will be a game where who's pen is better. I'll take the Brewers pen.

Brewers -140

The Posey effect

2011-05-27T09:20:00.004-05:00

Record 29-20 +8.02

I wonder what the records are of teams that were just swept on the road. Just thinking out loud.

Let's talk Brewers for a second. In the last 20 games here are the Brewers rankings in the NL

Batting Average 4th
Runs 2nd
HR's 2nd
Doubles 2nd
Stolen bases 2nd
Errors 5th
On base Pct 4th
Slugging pct 1st
Base on balls 4th

Overall record in the Majors tied with Boston 14-6

So we all know the Brewers are hitting - pitching is mediocre

San Francisco is pretty middle of the road to bottom in batting, last in HRs with 8, 2nd to last in runs scores WITH Posey.

Pitching? 1st

tonight game is the game of the year so far. This is an outstanding match-up We all know that Lincecum is not actually human correct? The guy is OUTSTANDING!!! But there is one wrinkle here. He threw 133 pitches last time out. He as only thrown 130+ two other times in his life and the next games were one bad one good but both were much later in the season.

130 pitches is a LOT.

he is an ultra GB pitcher that will have his way with the Brewers for sure. His average GAME SCORE is 64. I have zero doubt he will handcuff the Brewers (maybe a little doubt).

However - the main Brewers do hit him at a .294 clip and in the past 3 years the Brewers do have a 4.71 ERA vs. Lincecum so . . . . there is hope.

The Brewers are not without a weapon themselves in Shawn Marcum. Marcum has an average GAME SCORE of 62. So if each pitcher stays true to form it's all up to who has the better offense.

The Giants are REALLY hurting. You can not underestimate what losing Posey does to the Giant lineup. It's devastating. Losing the #4 hitter is always underestimated because it's not just the biggest hitter gone it's also shuffling the lineup and getting guys in spots they are not used to.

It's like a car that all of a sudden is missing a cylinder. A lineup all works together and all of a sudden you are missing the most important part? Plus the Giants were not hitting on all cylinders anyway. He was the KEY!!

His RC/27 was the the best on the team for everyday players (he would have been 4th on the Brewers).

Another point lost to many was that he was the catcher. The field general.

The Brewers are lucky in that we get the Giants at this moment in time. It's like when an ambulance passes you on a busy street - total chaos, the wave of cars come crashing together again with confusion.

Taking the UNDER of 6.5 seems obvious but I believe the Brewers will score some runs - not sure about the Giants

I took the Brew Crew at -110 and maybe a little side money on the Run Line at +185.

Yet more brooms????

2011-05-25T08:42:00.000-05:00

OH man - was that entertainment last night or WHAT? Talk about a stressful ending. The crowd is on their feet, Axford is having his way with the batters, strike strike strike and the announcers are announcing the player of the game and wrapping things up and as Axford strikes out his third batter making the dude look like a fool, the pitch bounces away and all of a sudden the tying run is on 1st, then 1st and 2nd, then the bases loaded and the guy that hit the grand slam earlier is up! HOLY SHIT WHAT HAPPENED!!!!!

It's all good! So Lucroy the player of the game is all pissed at himself.

Wednesday 5/25/11

Record 28-20 +7.02

Can we sweep AGAIN? We need to because no one is stopping the Cards!!

Today the Brewers go up against Jason Marquis an actual average to poor pitcher. He is 7-2 in games he has started but don't get fooled - he has gotten runs when he pitches. He has not done very well at all on the road posting a 5.71 ERA which is actually a lot better then last years road ERA which was 6.75 and the year before was 4.16.

He pitched against the Brewers a few weeks ago and gave up 9 singles in 7 innings but I think that at the moment the Brewers are hitting much better then the last time they met.

Granted Lucroy will probably not play which is all of a sudden a pretty big bat not in the line-up. I wonder if this will be like a Sunday game? I have to be careful now that Sundays seem to be the "B" line-up day.

Marquis seems to pitch deep into games which is good for Washington as their previously good pen has sucked 3 of the last 4 games and while their offense seem good last night remember 4 of their 6 runs were from one swing of the bat against a struggling Narveson.

For the Brewers the only bat not hitting is McGehee (well Gomez and Betancourt but they never hit so that is factored in) which I'm worried about but maybe he will come around. The rest of the top of the line-up is el fuego. Weeks is showing signs of life again after going 10 games without an RBI. Braun is good as long as he keeps his helmet on, Fielder has 5 extra base hits in the last 7 games and hopefully Lucroy will play with a day off tomorrow!

Greinke - we keep waiting for him to get Greinke-like but remember this is only his 5th game. It took Gallardo 7 games to find himself and the other starters already have 11 games started - for Greinke this is still VERY early in the season.

The Brewer pen was outstanding last night and it would be nice to give Ax a night off but otherwise the pen is in good shape with a day off tomorrow!

So while I believe the Brewer line of -170 is a little pricey - do I really want to go against a hot hot hot team with a former Cy Young pitcher on the mound vs. a struggling offense and average to poor pitcher?

No!

Brewers -170.

No Miricle Whip for the Nats

2011-05-24T07:47:00.000-05:00

So while some people are following some dude on the SBR forum saying he will win 150 units this year and lying through his teeth with results I've won a very quiet unnoticed 14 out of the last 18.

Record 27-20 +6.02

Tuesday 5/24/11

I was looking for a reason to NOT bet the Brewers today and before I saw the line I figured if the Nats were a heavy dog I would have to consider it. They are not and should be.

Chris Narveson has been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Brewers but is 2-7 in games started. 0-5 on the road and 2-2 at home. Washington has done very poorly vs. LHP's scoring 1 one less a game and this should continue. a poor hitting team, on the road vs. a lefty! Gotta like it.

Really not a lot to say about tonight's game - you might see Council at SS and maybe Kotsey in CF as both have a lot of AB's vs. Hernandez with very good success. Livan has pitched pretty well the last few outings but his offense behind him has only scores ONE run in his last 4 starts. So while he might be able to slow the Brewer offense he might have to slow them to 1 or 2 runs.

Hernandez pitches to contact and the Brewers are contacting very well. He has been making FB outs a little more then his career totals and has never pitched in Miller Park.

So with Narveson pitching well, the Brewer bats knocking down doors, the bullpen rested (one more day would be nice)and 17-6 at home combined with Washington very poor vs. LHP and poor in general, 10-17 on the road and 1-5 on this road trip.

-153 seems like a good deal - certainly taking the Nats at +138 would be tossing the dice hoping for a miracle.

Brewers -153

Starting another sweep

2011-05-23T08:16:00.005-05:00

Do ya think the Brewers have a score to settle with Washington?

Record 26-20 +5.02

Who needs more then 2 hits anyway!! I don't know about you guys but winning with 2 hits and then the next day you have Gallardo pitching . . .then the next you have Narveson who is really pitching like the #2 guy in the rotation and THEN Greinke AND THEN Marcum . . . . I can't remember ever not having 2 or 3 BIG holes in the starting rotation.

Today the Brewers meet up with a struggling Washington team who are 9 - 11 in the last 20, 10-16 on the road with a .224 avg and a .296 OBA and a .354 SLG. In their last 4 series the top of the line up is hitting .224 scoring 1.78 runs and RBIing 1.56 runs per game. That INCLUDES one game where they scored 17 runs!!!

Washington does have one big redeeming quality. Their bullpen has been fantastic - the best pen I have seen this year. 1,44 ERA in the last 4 series and they have only given up runs in 2 games and really only one bad outing.

Pitching today is lefty Tom Gorzelanny an extreme flyball pitcher. The Brewers do have some problems vs. LHP, particularly Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt(who is a hole anyway) and Gorzelanny did give up only 2 runs in 6 innings last time they met - - IN WASHINGTON (remember that sweep?).

But away from Washington Gorzelanny has pretty much sucked and over the last three years he has a 5.60 ERA away from home. At Miller Park Gorz has pitched 14 innings and given up Five ( 5 ) home runs. He is not a fan of Miller Park.

One thing the Nationals do not do is make errors! Only 4 in the last 20 games

Don't expect the Brewers to sit back and wait for a good pitch. Opponents hit .396 and have a +.700 slugging very early in the count so expect the Brewers to go up swinging.

The Brewers are winning on pitching and just enough hitting. top of the order is hitting .251 with 2.7 Runs and 2.4 RBIs and as we all know are potent at home.

Gallardo has pitched 3 good games in a row and has righted the ship but then there is the bullpen. Axford will not pitch tonight after going 3 nights in a row. So many close games are starting to wear the back end of the pen out a little. Loe and Hawkins are available and the rest have all had bad outings recently. A close game could be a problem.

Washington is on a nightmare road trip losing 4 out of 5 and I would love to see another sweep (do one to others . . . . ). In those 5 games they have scored 0,0,17,3,1

The line is large (as it should be)

Brewers -170
Nationals +155

a line of +155 always should be looked at as an opportunity but in this case there is just to much momentum on the Brewers side.

Brewers -175

Get the brooms

2011-05-22T09:12:00.000-05:00

I was all set to go with the Rockies today until I saw the line!

Record 25-20 +3.95

So as I was saying I was all set to go with the Rockies today because Jimenez sems to have found his groove again after a disastrous first part of the season where he was walking everybody insight. HE is a ground ball pitcher that was walking batters and giving up a lot of flyballs - basically he was SUCKING.

Until his last game. The Brewer bats are not REAL active and the bottom of the order is contributing. What is swaying me is that Fielder and Weeks are doing well and really the Rockies are hitting about as well as Milwaukee.

The question is which Wolf will show up - Bad Wolf? GREAT Wolf or average Wolf. We have only seen average Wolf twice in 8 games - Four two and two with Four GREAT games.

OK - I'm running out of time today - The Brewers as dogs at home just seem wrong - if this was a road game I would be on the Rockies but at home I just can not go against them on this one.

The Crew will win a close one or get blown out! I think they have a chance to win at +107 the price is right.

Colorado is 7-13 in their last 20 games and are not scoring on the road.

I can not bet against the best home team in American!

Brewers +107

What a game!

2011-05-21T08:27:00.001-05:00

I need to apologize to the few of you that read this blog. You see I normally type the post over at the SBR Baseball Handicapping forum and then cut and past it here. Except yesterday I was one sentence away and deleted the entire post! After spending so much time on it I can't recreate it.

I had the Brewers -145 WHEW
---------------------------
Saturday 5/21/11

Record 24-20 +2.95 units

Last nights game was one of the most dramatic games I've ever seem - not just the walk-off HR but the entire game was dramatic, it was like watching a movie!! THAT was entertainment.

Today's game has a new wrinkle in it by the name of Clayton Mortensen. The first thing that stands out is that the Brewers have a .750 BA against him . . . but only 4 At Bats so perhaps that is not indicative of future success.

Anyway - get on the Brewers ASAP - I put one unit on Milwaukee at -155 which is a steal and also a side bet on the Run Line at +140.

Here is why - Mortensen has pitched 59 innings in his career - he's a starter/releaver and does not have a lot of stamina and has never ever gone more then 6 innings meaning that the Rockie bullpen will come into play. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher that gives up home runs because he makes mistakes. Those mistakes are typically when someone is on base. His three starts this year are ALL against San Fransisco who in their last 20 games are 2nd to last in the league in scoring behind the Dodgers.

The crew is at home in homer rich Miller Park and I feel they will have success vs. this dude! He does not strike out many but does walk many.

But the kicker for the game is Marcum the Brewer Ace. The guy has not had a bad game yet! So you have two teams which can hit, one vs. a very very consistent ace who is 6-3 in games started and an inning eater. Marcum will need to eat some innings as the Brewer pen is in worse shape then the Rockies. You won't see Loe tonight which is too bad as he has had 5 good outings in a row. In fact the more I look at the pen the more it worries me a little.

But I think the crew will have some runs on the board tonight - if they don't we're in trouble. Axman is fine if needed and we might see Dillard tonight! The back end of the pen has been getting used a lot with all of these close games.

The Brewers are 9-4 since the road trip of death.

In last nights game Brewers issued ZERO walks over 14 innings and 6 pitchers! The longest no-walk outing since the Brewers were Nationalized.

And a note about Gomez - that guy creates so many problems when he get's on. People say that he is no good unless he can get his OB at a .300 clip. Well - I disagree. I believe his defense which is outstanding and his total chaos on the base paths justify (a little) his low OB. The upside of him is so much greater then the downside.

I would wager that he saves 1/2 a hit a game in the outfield. Yea - I can't wait for Morgon to come off the DL but Gomez - when on base paths is just a nightmare for a pitcher. So you can get down on the guy but he does have some redeeming value.

Brewers -155

Let's make this a good road trip

2011-05-19T10:28:00.006-05:00

I stayed up until the Brewers took the lead in the 6th and then had to hit the hay. Staying up until 12:30 and getting up at 5:45 was starting to wear on me (who knew!!). I think it showed in my golf game last night!

ANYWAY - I'm pretty confidant in today's pick and even put an extra 1/2 unit on the Run Line.

Record 23-19 +3.02

Last day of this odd road trip to cavernous pitcher parks where home runs go to die!

The San Diego bullpen is REALLY getting way too much work. Nine games in a row the Starters have failed to go 6 innings. When this streak started the pen was holding it's own but in the last 3 games and 9.33 innings they have given up 5 runs. So while the Starters have a Run Average of 7.84 the pen has been getting worse with the more work. Remember the Brewers last year when their pen was tired from over work? They just could not hold a lead or stop the bleeding.

This is something you might want to watch and fade the Pad's for a while if the starters keep this up.

Another interesting thing about the Pads is that at home they have a RC/27 of 3.09 and on the road 4.40 so while their pitching is 0.70 better at home their offense is 1.40 worse.

Today Harang who the Brewers CRUSH will try to be on the winning side for the 7th time. His ERA is a lofty 5.05 but if you take away two nightmare games (one being his last game) his ERA is actually 2.75. Still - against the current Brewers who have faced him in 186 ABS he has given up a .326 BA and a .500 SLG! In S.D. he has a 4.32 ERA with 70 innings vs. the Crew.

Harang will give up hits but can hold runners on base. He has no bat, can't bunt and has no range fielding. He does not throw a DP ball and is a flyball pitcher and don't be surprised with a wild pitch.

I'll be interested if Council bats today as he has Braun-like numbers vs. Harang in 37 ABs. .351 BA and a .514 Slugging!! Weird.

The Brewers who are actually hitting well. Top of the Order is .289 and MAN it's nice to see Hart hitting in the #2 spot. Since he had 3 days off 11 games ago he is hitting .361 with four doubles and a triple. Three of the doubles were warning track doubles missing HR's be a couple feet.

A lot of people dislike Gomez but I'm not one of them. What he does in the OF is truly amazing and if there is one problem you SHOULD be concerned over it's at SS.

Sure Betancorp is CRUSHING the ball when compared to Escobar this year but from 2009 up to last night there are only three WORSE shortstops defensively when it comes to zone defense! In that same time frame there are only 2 WORSE offensive players when it comes to wOBA (weighted On Base Percentage . .OBP with the number of bases taken into account) and one of those is Jason Kendall.

The Brewers REALLY need to get a Shortstop.

So tonight the Brewers bats should fair well against Harang.

But what of Narveson? The Pads are good vs. LHP for sure but take away his throw-up game his ERA is a solid 2.93. He's not giving up HR.s. I'm pretty confidant in his pitching as long as he is not hurling cookies between innings which seems to throw him off a little.

My advice is that he needs to be in the wind-up and not stretch. When runners are on he suffers! He's a very good hitting - expert bunter and is OK fielding. He can hold runners on but no DPs.

I'm all over the Brewers today at -107.

A game of contradictions!

2011-05-18T08:52:00.001-05:00

Come on man - when do I get an easy game!

record 22-19 +2.02

This is a game of contradictions!

San Diego the toughest park to get a run. So what do the Brewers get? Dustin Moseley - a hack pitcher from the Yankees who is doing well in San Diego. He's a ground ball pitcher which is giving up a TON of flyballs in his last two hacky games.

Moseley can not hold anybody on base - I believe Johnny Estrada could steal off him! He is a good fielder but is very very poor hitting which includes bunting and he will not see the 6th inning!

Who know who this guy is. He's given up 11 runs in his last 2 games (9 innings total)yet still has a 3.40 ERA. He is 2-6 in games started but in 5 of those 6 losses the Padres have scored ONE run total. He has been shut out 4 times.

Recently the Padres are hitting .340 and have been scoring 3.8 runs and hitting in 3.0 runs per game - pretty darn good!!! The Padres score MUCH more on the road and are now at home.

So on the Padres side we have a hot hitting team coming home where they suck and a hack ground ball pitcher that was hot but the last two games has given up a lot of flyballs and is not in the best pitcher park in the Majors.

Their bullpen has been getting a lot of work as the average starter goes just over 5 innings a game! Yet - the pen run average is 2.93 while the Starter run average is 8.16. So you have a tired bullpen pitching great. They have a success rating of 64% (meaning that 64% of the time their pen pitches effectively).

The Brewers are hitting .269 scoring 3 runs and RIBing 2.78 BUT are on the road. BRAIN HURT!!!

So in order to score you are going to need a lot of hits! Moseley is pitching a .257 batting average. Brewers are hitting .269 but but you look at his last two games and . . . . . . .

Gallardo has righted his ship and is pitching well and should do well in San Diego (except for that hot hitting Padre thing).

I have to stop typing as I'm just getting more and more confused - this has to be the toughest game this year for predicting. THEN you look at the line

This morning its the Brewers as pretty big favs at -126 and the Padres +116.

OH - did I mention that San Diego suck at home? Yea - 7-14 and the Brewers suck on the road? Yea 7-16. Give me a freaking break. IN the last 20 games the Brewers have an On Base of .293 and San Diego .325. San Diego has made the most errors in the league by a lot (Milwaukee 2nd most) and the Pad's have also given up a lot of HRs.

I want to pick San Diego but I'm really sucking at taking dogs being 4-8 -2.73

So I suppose since this is a toss up I'm on the Brewers and Gallardo. One thing I'll look for is the Brewers starting off hot tonight and then cooling off when teh pen comes in. The Brewers Bull pen is has a 68% success rate and is rested . . .enough.

Back end of the pen getting tired with close games

2011-05-17T08:10:00.000-05:00

Tuesday 5/17/11

Well - I had the lack of offense correct for both sides! Wrong final answer though. Man those coast games get over late 12:15 I think it was when I became alert again!

record 22-18 +3.02

Today we get to see Randy Wolf who has had two horrific outings in a row. However - he is very comfortable in Dodger Stadium pitching 118 innings and posting an ERA 0.20 better then his three year overall. He is a flyball pitcher in a large park against a team that does not hit home runs! Dodger Stadium suits him. call me whacky but I think this is a good set up for him.

You have the Dodgers that are struggling at the moment scoring 1.9 and hitting in 1.8 runs per game *Top of the line-up) and while they are hitting .274 it's a powerless .274. They are last in the NL with only 9 HR's in the last 20 games. Keep the lead off Carroll off base and they are not going to score.

Look at the power difference between the two teams 2B/3B/HR in the last 20 games

Brewers 36/6/19
Dodgers 29/1/9

The Dodgers are last in slugging pct.

Pitching for the Dodgers (did you know their real name was The Trolly Dodgers?) is Kurodo who was 9th in the Majors in swinging strikeout and his walk rate and Strikeout to unintentional walk rate were 2nd in the league to Halladay. To me this means teh Brewers are not going to get cute and wait on pitches. Go up there hacking and when they do this good things happen.

I think we can get to this guy!

The one concern is the Brewer bull pen - we won't have the set-up Loe tonight as he has gone 3 days in a row. Ax has pitched 2 days in a row and 6 of the last 10 days - be nice to give him a rest. All others are rested - especially the front end of the pen.

The Dodger pen is a little stressed on the back end also.

What when gets me is that the Dodgers have only scored 2 runs in the last 3 games. They will score tonight but teh Brewers being dogs is intriguing.

I bet the Brewers at +116.

On the Road again!

2011-05-16T07:53:00.000-05:00

Monday 5/16/11

Record: 22-17 +4.02

I would like to say I'm in tune with the Brewers winning 9 of the last 10 but it's more like . . . come on - they were playing the Pirates and at home.

The next 4 days will be a challenge as the Crew fly to the West Coast for two two game series in pitcher ball parks.

First the Brewers play in Dodger Stadium which is ranked 21 out of 30 for keeping runs off the board using Ball Park Factor**. It's not like Dodger Stadium has any one characteristic that keeps runs off the board - it's an all around big park. There will me no triples and walks are way way lower (not sure how a ballpark does that). On average there are 10% less runs scored in L.A.

**Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.

And let's not forget that the Crew are two time zones away (jet lag for game #1).

Raw Numbers the last 9 games

Top of the Order
Brewers .259 Average 3.11 Runs 2.65 RBIs
Dodgers .285 Average 2.00 Runs 1.89 RBIs

Bullpens

Brewers - success rate 77% but iffy, the core five have been used a bunch and a lot of innings would be great for resting some guys

Dodgers - success rate 66% in great shape - over all the Dodgers have had good pitching lately.

So while the Brewer bats are in full swing AT HOME - this will be a good road test

Garland is an extreme ground ball pitcher who has been pitching consistently well. He loves pitching in Dodger Stadium (4-1 2.53 ERA) and if you take away his 1st game this year has a 2.57 ERA - The Brewers AGAIN are going up against YET ANOTHER VERY GOOD PITCHER ON THE ROAD.

He can hold runners on base, fields his position, is not a bad hitter, a good bunter and can get out of innings with the DP. This is exactly the kind of guy that the Brewers have problems with.

Marcum has been OUTSTANDING on the road this year with a 1.14 ERA in 5 road games and he should have a good night. It's hard to not like the Brewers in this game . . . .except the memories of the last road trip linger and I remember telling myself - BE CAREFUL ON THE ROAD vs. GOOD PITCHERS.

So until the Brewers can show me they have righted the "good pitcher on the road" syndrome I have to take the Dodgers at +105

I feel the Dodgers are playing a little over their heads and the Brewers are a little . . under their heads so in the long run I believe the Brewers are a better team - I just need to see that they can hit on the road. The price is right on this game.

Dodgers +105

8 of the last 9 !!

2011-05-15T09:31:00.000-05:00

Sunday 5/15/11

record 21-17 8 of the last 9 and +3.02

What can you say. I started to look at the game and quickly realized my goal would be not to find how Milwaukee would win but to find a reason to bet on Pittsburgh. Frankly - I see absolutely zero reason to put money on the Pirates vs. Milwaukee.

So there are two options. Bet the Brewers at -175 or don't bet at all. Since I can not do option #2 I must bet on the Brewers.

Watching MLB Network they said today's game was a "reverse favorite". Why you ask? Because Greinke has had an up and down season . . . . . .what?? up and down season? Hasn't he pitched like 2 games and the first was basically a spring training game?

And Correia the Pirate ace has been very good or very bad and I feel he is NOT a great pitcher. In the last 3 years he has a 5.96 ERA vs. Milwaukee. He also has a 5.80 ERA in Day Games and a 5.13 ERA on the Road in the last 3 years! HOWEVER - he is 5-0 on the road this year and is the reason the Pirates are so good on the road. Anomaly? I think so.

This is the Brewers remember? The team that is 32-3 vs. the Pirates in the last 35 home games. How can you go against that trend. Come on man!! Yea Correia is 3-4 vs. Milwaukee and will last probebly up to the 7th inning which is what the Bucs really need as their pen is on the cusp of getting tired. I don't care when the talking heads as on TV - the Pirate Pen is not THAT good.

As for the Brewers - Weeks is hitting a fair amount of extra base hits (6 in last 11 games), Gomez has 3 2Bs and 2 3Bs in his last 5 starts, Braun finally has an extra base hit after 9 games without one and his hitting the ball well of late, Fielder and McGehee are hitting well and even Hart has a 5 game hitting streak with 3 2Bs and let's not forget about Lucroy the Brewer leading hitter.

So the Brewers are are on good shape offensively. The bull pen is in a little flux with Braddock and Kintzler out but Estrada stepping up and side arm Dillard now on the team. You will probably see Mitre at some point and yea - the pen is a small concern but Geienke could go into the 8th inning and Ax-man is rested. Is Green still on the team? - I liked that guy, he had 4 good outings in a row before he disappeared.

Sit Setter - 5 of his last 6 outings have been bad.

So basically it's up to Greinke and the Brewer offense (which seems obvious) as I don't expect much out of the Pirates offense and then add a dash the Pirates just being cursed in Milwaukee.

Brewers -175

On a personal note - I put 1/2 unit on the -170 and hale a unit on the RL at +125 The brewers still have 33% of their wins by 1 run so it's a risk but . . . .

6:00 on the Road

2011-05-13T22:52:00.001-05:00

Saturday 5/14/11

Record 20-17 +2.02

I'm on the road to an Art Fair so no write up today. Won last night and I put extra AND bet the Run line (pretty big game for me).

Today - Narveson seems expensive at -155 (overnight lines) but there are so many things I like about this game.

Pirates are poor against LHP, Good on the road but not hitting very well now.

Their pitcher seems like a guy who makes mistakes and their pen has to be starting to wear down. Another pitcher that will might not make it to the 6th inning!

Brewers -150. Karstens will not get it done.

Gotta run
Cheers

On a run!

2011-05-13T12:28:00.001-05:00

Friday 5/12/11 vs. Pittsburgh.

I'm on a good run, 6-1 +4.91

So tonight's game looks pretty ill-matched for the Pirates from the outside. And really from the inside it looks pretty bloody for the Pirates.

I glance at the game and I immediately have to see the early line -158. Hmmmm - that almost looks like a pretty good bet. I'm actually pretty happy in only paying -158.

Brewers still are not really hitting well - the runs are there but it's always like the faucet turns on for 3 innings and shuts off. Nothing sustained. HOWEVER - looking at the individual players, most are actually coming out of the slump so much of the stats are still reflecting on the road numbers.

Braun hit something like .054 for a 9 game stretch and having that happen to the #3 guy in your lineup will REALLY **** things up. But up and down the line up people are pitching in so I'm good with the Brewer offense at the moment. The last 5 games for the Top of the Line up are scoring a robust 3.00 runs a game with 2.20 RBIs.

Pittsburgh - - bad night for the Pirates as they got rained out so while there was no game and their pen can rest they still dressed up and their starter still pitched. Their 9 game Bull pen ERA is as deceptive like the Brewers but all in all the Pirates pen . . . well . . still sucks!

I've tracked them for 19 games this year and their pen has a 57% chance of having a poor game. (Poor is defined just like it sounds, poor - sucks - blows, damn you _____ insert name). The Brewers for comparison have a 31% chance for poornish!

Which brings us to James McDonaled! He averages 5.2 innings this year down from last year which was still only 5.7 innings. McDonald is the kind of pitcher the Brewers eat up. Massive flyball pitcher who has been giving up HR's to large hitting teams (such as the Brewers), Braun will not have to worry about hitting into DPs tonight.

I believe this is one of those cases where a guy is good against "OK" teams but struggles against good teams (which I still believe the Brewers are).

He pitched 6 shut-up innings against Houston, the #15 HR hitting team. He also dished up 2 HR's against FLA (#1) and 2 against Cinci #3 in a TOTAL of 7.33 innings. The Brewers are in 5th so I see some homers in their future.

Gallardo pitched his 2nd best game of the year (Atlanta shut out was best and he crashed after that - Early Season Shut-out Syndrum - rag arm).

I suspect Yovani has righted the ship. He is 9-1 vs. Pitts and has never given up more then 3 ERs. He is 5-0 in Milwaukee with a 1.80 ERA vs. the Pirates.

The Crew are 48-17 vs. Pitts since 2007 but the pirates have been winning on the road. Big deal, they beat teams that were slumping at that point in time. The Brewers are not slumping anymore (except for 1 inning LOL).

This one goes to Milwaukee and even though I always play one unit I put a little extra on this one and when the run line comes out I might toss a little it's way.

Brewers -158

Put away the Brooms

2011-05-11T08:03:00.000-05:00

Wednesday 5/11/2011

Record 18-17 -0.18 correction from previous records

Put away the brooms.

Comment on last nights game - I have to put an ass trick next to Marcums numbers last night. Next Monday when I look at his numbers I'll see he pitched below average but in reality it was the 8 run lead that did him in. He got a little lazy I feel.
-------------------------
As much fun as the 1st four innings were last night the last 5 were sort of tedious! The Brewers were great against against Richard but not so much against anybody else. That is why I'm actually picking San Diego today!

I was reading all the comments from Padre fans and how their offense sucks but come on guys, your team plays in the best park in the Majors FOR PITCHERS!! Of course your offense sucks, you also have a 2.67 ERA at home.

The Padre hitters are not as bad as they are being made out to be and while Milwaukee SEEMS to have unslumped last night it was all against one pitcher.

Today they go against a big ground ball pitcher Tim Stauffer with a 4-3 record in games started who has done well against some high scoring teams. The only big drawback is he suffers Gallardo disease, many pitches, few innings! Few walks, and a good amount of Ks and forget homeruns. The guy is good.

You will see a lot of ground balls and a lot of high counts. The guy is REAL good at holding runners on and can field his position. His only drawback is endurance.

Wolf - which Wolf will show up. Was the last game an anomaly or a prediction that the world is back to normal and Wolf is who we thought he was, a good #4 starter. That is the crap shoot today. I know Stauffer will do well but how will Wolfie do.

Raw Numbers

Top of the Order

Brewers .179 Avg 1.36 runs 0.91 RBIs per game
Padres .258 Avg 2.27 runs 1.91 RBIs per game

Bull Pens

Brewers - 4 solid outings in a row - Axford could be a little tired
Padres - just dang good and ready

So I'm picking the Padres at +120 I'm 3-6 picking dogs at -1.93 so take that into account.

Cheers

VICTORY! is sweet

2011-05-10T10:38:00.001-05:00

Tuesday 5/10/11
Record 17-17 +0.82! IN THE BLACK!!

If you have not seen this video of last nights amazing double play . . it's the play of the year!!

Amazing Double play watch it full screen - it's smoother

ANYWAY - I really don't want to retype all that shit again!

Brewer bats - still bad - overcoming the road trip
Padre bats - just bad

Bull Pens are in good shape but the Padres are on a good/bad/good trend and today is BAD.

Marcum has been outstanding this year and very consistent - expect 7 innings out of him and few runs!

Richard - a little worried that he could handle the Brewers as they are not great vs. LHP but I feel the tide is turning. He is getting more Fly Balls then he is used too which is telling me he is not "on". Plus while his BB/9 is where it should be his KK/9 is very low! He's still searching for his groove.

One thing I watch is the general game play and how many things are falling in place. There have been some good plays by the Brewers and frankly the Padres are looking a lot like the Brewers did on the road.

Little things like not finding the ball in the outfield, hitting into freaky DPs and so forth. The Brewers were SO, SO, close to knocking that game wide open last night! Hart is hiring the ball HARD and the comfort of home is showing. A good number of hard hits and with the roof open tonight expect some HR's.

So I believe this will be another low scoring game. Richard is 2-5 in starts and has a 5.21 Run Average. Marcum is 4-3 with a 2.98 Run Average.

Looking at the Third Order Delta standings which takes into account, EVERYTHING about a team the Brewers should be about .500 so they have had some poor luck - they are better then their record. San Diego is also a little better then their record.

Since the bull pens are a wash and the Brewers are at home so their hitting is better and the Padres are on the road and their hitting sort of sucks - BREWERS -158 is steep but doable.
----------------------------
The one thing that is bothering me about the Brewers being a Brewer fan is that MAYBE?? they are a GOOD team but not a big contender? They can beat the poorer teams but when on the road against good teams they totally blow. Was that road trip a forcast for the future? or an anomaly? Are the Brewers good enough to beat the pack but not against the elite?

This will be something to watch. My thinking is that pitching could carry the Brewers against good teams if the offense is just BAD - but not horrific nightmarish like on that road trip!

Join me on www.sportsline.com tonight on the comment area during the game (I'm Grinder) It's pretty fun watching the game and commenting - we need a few more level headed none idiot flaming morons!

Cohiba made me miss a post

2011-05-09T08:40:00.000-05:00

Sorry for missing Sunday - I had a horrific cigar incident and was donating to the porcelain God Saturday night! I was near death!

Monday 5/9/11 HOME AGAIN!

Record 16-17 -0.18 units

Monday 5/9/11 HOME AGAIN!

Record 16-17 -0.18 units

I was all set to go against the Brewers today - after all it SEEMS good to finally come home but I know in the NBA to always go against a team in it's 1st home game after a road trip. My thinking was that yea - it's great to be home but the Brewers are still not hitting.

BUT - then I was looking at the Padres . .

Raw stats

Top of the Order

Padres .240 avg 2.33 Runs 1.89 RBI's per game
Brewers .181 avg 1.20 Runs 0.80 RBIs per game

So two teams not really clicking on all their cylinders (or colanders as the spelling checker says, perhaps the Brewers are actually clicking on all of their colanders and that is the problem).

Pitching last 10 games

Padres Starters 4.17, 6.0 innings per game Pen 2.89 in good shape **
Brewers Starters 4.78, 6.2 innings per game Pen 3.32 in good shape

Pardes last 3 opponents were L.A. (16-19) Pitts (17-17) Arizona (15-18) No the cream of the crop! Brewers have gone up against some REAL good pitching
Starting pitching tonight

Latos - The BIG BIG key is to get ahead - Latos is a real head case and when he gets behind in a game he has a big tendency to lose it. He's a slight fly ball pitcher and in his 5 losses this year he has given up 5 HR's in 21 innings! He has only gone over 6 innings once in his last 10 games so the bull pen will come into play for sure. Brewers need a lead before that happens and I believe the game will be decided by the 7 inning.

Greinke - his first start might look NOT fantastic but let's take things into perspective - it was his FIRST start and if you break the game down his 1st inning was 30 pitches which will pretty much wear your arm out fast which is probably why his fast ball was off by 1 mph. Another odd thing was his curve ball was way FAST. Normally his curve is about 74 mph and in his first game it was 79. So he was probably a little amped up.

I'm not too concerned with Greinke and this game is for the Brewers to lose (which seems to be no a problem).

The Padres have been shut out 8 times this year and in the last 20 games they have a team BA of .218 which is 25 points lower then the Brewers. They also have the least amount of runs in the last 20 games averaging 2.95 per game (Brewers 3.70). However - they do lead the League in Stolen Bases and will throw the ball around commenting 14 errors (Brewers have 13).

They have no power at all and a .296 OBA (Brewers .299 but have power . . . well , once they did I guess . . a long time ago).

San Diego will take a walk with 75 or 3.75 batters per game compared to the free swinging Brewers at 2.70. I feel Greinke will forced the Padres to swing and that will not bode well for a team that can't hit!

Brewers -140 and waiting to see what the runs are!

BTW - for shits and giggles you can follow me on Twitter @RodMelotte I don't go nuts and clog with garbage posts (well, maybe once and a while).

WOW - 7 down!

2011-05-07T08:27:00.002-05:00

First of all let's make one thing clear - unlike 90% of the other people that post here I DO NOT believe I am a great baseball handicapper. This is a learning experience for me and if you can learn from my mistakes that is great.

Second I AM very very good in the NFL. I have a system I call Bridgejumper that I will post if there is football this year. 16 years and only 1 losing year - 227-121 about 65% winners but only 15-20 plays a year! One section of the system, crushes the spread at 75% with about 8 plays a year.

I mention all this because it will give you some background to my madness - it's a contrairian system. It picks the WORST games, the games no one in their right mind would play - and wins 65% of the time with back door victories and just takes advantage of the linemakers having to adjust the lines. So when I say the Brewers SUCK and then I play them - that is where I'm coming from.

I see baseball is different then football though!

TODAY Saturday 5/7/11

Since I'm a little pressed for time let's get to it.

BREWERS - BAD CARDS - GOOD

in the last 7 games the Brewers have gone up against GREAT pitchers. The average ERA is 2.71 for the starters! That is AMAZING and today what like 2.44? So while part of this streak is is just bad hitting, the Crew are going up against some REAL REAL good pitching every single game.

Look at the last 5 starters they have faced

1.52
2.63
2.86
2.98
1.99
2.44 today

WOW!!! I wonder when the last time any team has gone up against that!

I got the Cards at -129 today and think it's a steal

The Braves are our Bitches!!

2011-05-06T12:22:00.000-05:00

Friday 5/6/11 vs. St. Louis

OK - now that we made the Braves our bitches, onto St. Louis!

2 in a row baby!! 15-16 0.11 units! IN THE BLACK

Just a recap - I'm a Brewer fan that told a friend he would bet for or against the Brewers EVERY game this year!

RAW Numbers

Top of the lineup last 10 games

Bold prediction - Reonicke gets tossed tonight

Brewers .201 avg 1.9 runs 1.6 RBIs per game
Cards .328 avg 5.4 runs 4.5 RBIs per game remember when the Brewers were like that?

Pitching

Brewers Starters 6.15 Runs per game Pen 3.30 Runs per game - in good shape
Cards Starters 5.38 Runs per game Pen 4.50 Runs per game - a little stressed

Wolf has shut down the big Cards and is ON FIRE with an 0.65 ERA the last 4 games - he also has a 3.55 ERA in the last 3 years in St. Louis and a 3.18 ERA AGAINST the Cards!

Jamie Garcia has had some problems with the Brewers but is a huge GB pitcher. He has a 3.90 ERA vs, Brewers but a 2.20 at Busch Stadium II. What he doesn't do is pitch deep into a game which leaves room for a slighty stressed bull pen. I say stressed because while not tired YET, they are on the cusp of tiredness. Only 2 times in the last 10 games has the starter gone more then 6 innings.

EVERYTHING points to an easy Card victory but I disagree. It would be way to east to pick the Cards and the linemakers know it.

One of the trends I watch in the stock market and just life in general is the bottom. Last night I saw real frustration in coaches and players. Sometimes you just have to get emotional - stop playing the "I'm above emotion" and SHOW frustration and anger.

I saw frustrated and angry coaches last night, I saw players pissed off and I saw 15 Ks.

I feel the bottom has been reached - I feel Roenicke will get tossed tonight for the first time. I could be wrong though.

The Cards have been mauling the ball, having their way with opponents pitchers - but their pitching is a trouble spot. The Brewers are seeing the light at the end of this road trip nightmare. They lost Morgon for another 2 to 4 weeks. You can not expect Braun and Fielder to do another 2 for 30, Weeks is showing life again.

Garcia's ERA has gone UP every game this year PLUS - his ERA is deceptive as he has many UNearned runs. St .Louis is VERY error prone (even more then Milwaukee).

Wolf is a Fly ball pitcher but in St. Louis Flyballs die (and one reason I NEVER liked the Suppan deal).

Brewers +135

Thursday 5/5/11 Braves game #4

2011-05-05T10:55:00.001-05:00

WOW - tough to be a Brewer fan at the moment.

Record 14-16 -0.89 Units!

Let's put the raw numbers out there to begin with

Top of the Order - last 10 games

Brewers .228 Average 1.83 Runs pg 1.58 RBIs pg
Braves .265 Average 4.00 Runs pg 4.33 RBIs pg

Starters / Bull Pen - last 10 games

Brewers 6.33 RPG / 4.38 RPG rested (enough)
Braves 2.77 RPG / 4.57 RPG rested

Starting pitching today

Brewers Marcum Avg Game Score = 60 (4W - 2L) 2.21 ERA
Braves Beachy Avg Game Score = 59 (3W - 3L) 3.47 ERA

Marcum has pitched OUTSTANDING on the road this year. Beachy has pitched HORRIBLE at home this year.

Both pitchers are BIG Flyball pitchers!

Brewers 5-12 on the Road
Braves 8-7 at Home

You know that game show Deal or No Deal? I feel like the phone has just rung and the dude is giving me a choice that is JUST out of my comfort range. Atlanta -131 Brewers +121

Oddly I want to take the Brewers but oh man - talk about kicking a dead horse!

I'm on Atlanta -131

OK - let's not worry - the Brewers are sucking on the road and this is the 2nd longest road trip of the season against some teams AND ballparks that are not conducive to Brewer runs! What does concern me are the errors which are telling me that things are "off".

The crew have now played 6 more road games then home games with 4 more on this trip so this IS a very very tough part of the schedule. The good news is that the Crew are FINALLY at full strength for the 1st time this year! Let's TRY to split the remaining 2 games and get home. The Cards need not be feared - yea they are scoring HUGE runs but also giving up HUGE runs! Getting St. Louis now could be a good thing for the Brewer bats!

What would Tony Plush say!!

Plush and Coach Roenicke were the last two to depart after the doubleheader. “This isn’t what I signed up for,” Coach said.

Plush likened Coach’s feelings to a sword of Damocles** hanging above the clubhouse, held aloft by the hopes of preseason expectations.

“I don’t know about any of that fencing stuff,” Coach said. “Right now, I’d settle for an errorless game, a few crooked numbers.”

Plush didn’t feel this was the best time to note that he was responsible for driving in one-third of the runs during the doubleheader.

“All the world 's a stage,” Plush said. “And all the men and women merely players.” “I dig Geddy Lee,” Coach said. “But I’m in no mood.”

Coach started pushing on his temples. Plush would have to relocate his triples stroke. It was definitely time for a win.

BTW - I order two Plushdementals tee-shirts this morning!!

****The Sword of Damocles is frequently used in a tale epitomizing the imminent and ever-present peril faced by those in positions of power.

Double Header!!

2011-05-04T09:36:00.004-05:00

Tuesday take Two.

Gotta go with the same game as we tried last night - the only worry NOW is that Estrata has a little more pressure to do well as they will make a roster move BETWEEN GAMES to get Grienke on the Roster.

In Game #2 Greinke vs. Tim Hudson. Didn't we play a 4 game series a while ago with the Braves? How is it we're not seeing these guys for the 2nd time! Hudson scares me - a HUGE - I mean HUGE ground ball pitcher! Brewers get hits but not runs against these pitchers! Actually the Brewers do not score against massive fly ball pitchers either - it's the middle guys, as their average goes down the run production goes up!

Hansen does have the other qualities that Brewers like - but my gut feel is that Grienke will be a little jacked up and maybe not normal "in-season" self. Not loving Double headers a lot when it comes to gambling. I'll be in golf league tonight so I won't have a chance to really observe (except through a drunken haze after the round I suppose).

Looking at some random things.

Game #1
Hanson has a DAY ERA of 3.59 NIGHT 2.95
Hanson has a Brewers ERA of 3.81 and a 3.10 in all non-Brewer games
Hanson is balanced between Lefties and Righties
Hanson is 12-7 at home in the last 3 years 9-8 on the road

Game #2
Hudson has a Brewers ERA of 3.92 and a 2.97 in all non-Brewer games
Hudson has a little more trouble vs. Lefties so I expect Morgon to start in Game #2
Hudson is 19-7 at home in the last 3 years 11-10 on the road

Brewer pitchers - well Estrada does not have enough games to really start trending

Greinke is 24-11 at home in the last 3 years 15-21 on the road

I see the line for Game #2 is -135 Atlanta and I'm taking that one I ASSUME Game #1 will be about the same so when it comes out I'll take the Brewers at +148ish or whatever.

Good luck.

F*CK ME!!!

2011-05-03T10:35:00.002-05:00

F*CK ME!!!

TUESDAY 5/2/11 (again) vs. Atlanta

To say disappointing would be an understatement. If you watched the game two things stood out. Gallardo did not pitch a bad game even though the stats say otherwise - He reminded me of Randy Wolf (or was it Bush . . .or Navarro) - pitch well enough to win until the other team strings hits together - OR - until Fielder pushes Hart off a pop up and drops it.

Two - Brewers should have been shut out except for a miss played bomb by what some say is a Gold Glove (but statistically is not).

HOWEVER - I've been looking at the problem and some would say the Brewers suck offensively on the road but if you look deeper and look at all the games played this year there is a tell (poker term there).

In the 17 games the Brewers have played against a pitcher with a >.300 BABIP (Batting Average with Balls In Play) they produce (Runs + RBIs) 4.05 runs. In the 14 games they have gone up against <.300 7.37. In 5 of the last 6 games >.300 for a 3.00 average. Not saying it is a trend but how about a . . . trend of interest!

It gets curious-er Same with going against high WHIP pitchers - just as bad! Low WHIP pitchers they are almost twice as productive.

Let's cut to the chase.

Last night I said "Rod, there is NO FREAKING WAY you are betting on the Brewers tomorrow"

So today I'm betting on the Brewers +148 - Hanson fits into the kind of pitcher the Brewers like. Low ERA, low BABIP and Low WHIP! it's like they come out and say "Let's get serious". And the Crew have actually done well against Hanson in the past 3 years!

Estrada has done well and even I did not trust him so think about the betting public!!

What I worry about not is not that I seem to be a homer always betting on the Crew - it's that I might actually go the other way BECAUSE I seem to be a homer. This is tough!

If the Brewers are flat again tonight it's a true slump and I'll be fading them (unless I come up with more garbage). The Braves still do not excite me on offense. Both pens are good and pretty equal.

is it me or does every time Gomez hit a Home Run you can pretty much figure 90% of his outs will be deep fly outs for a while!!

Weeks - no runs OR RBIs for 4 games . McGehee 1 run no RBI's for 5 games - in the last 10 games Atlanta Starters have given up exactly 2 runs! In those same 7 games their pen has also given 12 total runs.

So - ONE LAST TIME BREWERS +148

On to Atlanta

2011-05-02T08:00:00.002-05:00

MONDAY 5/2/11 vs. Braves

WOW - that last part of April sucked. Now today the Crew go to Atlanta. I've learned a few things in this 1st month such as the Brewers, on the road are not as potent so I'm taking that into account. Plus I know more about the kind of pitching that is giving the Crew problems. SO - we shall see

Record! 13-14 +0.11 STILL A WINNER!!!! LOL

I just do not think Gallardo is THAT bad! If you look at his last outing where I'm sure they told him to pitch to contact and he did and they did and the Crew were down by 3 before there was even an out!

Atlanta offense is like Houston - it's there but nothing to get excited about. What Atlanta is doing right is their starting pitching but today their bullpen is a tad tired - or I should say the key players are tired and the untired ones are also the ineffective ones of late.

Brewers offense struggled the last 2 games and Jurrjens has been pitching well but his three starts have all been in pitcher friendly parks and three of the lower scoring teams in the league but overall the Crew the last 10 games the top of the line up has been productive and over all in the last 20 games the Brewers have scored the 3rd most runs in the league.

As a team Atlanta has an on base in Gomez territory - both Milwaukee and Atlanta have bottom of the order problems.

Brewer pitching has been pretty good lately, it just does not feel like it. I think because the Brewers sucked so bad the last 2 games and Gallardo who is a very good pitcher has suck the last 4 games that the line is skewed. +140 seems like a good bet and I'm REALLY not trying to be a homer.

I told myself before I saw the line that anything decent for Atlanta like in the -120 range I would take the Braves but at -140 it just seems to much to pay. Four of the last 6 losses have been extra innings or by 1 run so it's not like the Crew is getting bitch slapped around.

New town, new attitude and hope as Morgon and Greinke come abroad Tuesday and FINALLY the team is what the Brewers envisioned in spring training.

Morgon might replace Gomez in center at some point. I'm not sure Gomez has any natural baseball sense!

BREWERS +130

That one hurt

2011-05-01T11:58:00.002-05:00

SUNDAY 5/1/2011

When the Brewers tied it up in the top of the 9th I was pretty much chalking up a win! BUT NOOOOO BUT HEY - I'm still in the black.

Record 13-13 +1.32 WINNING MONEY!!! lol

Let's make it simple The Brewers are WLWLWLWLWL the last 10 games - it's time for a "W".

The Astros just can not hit 2.30 runs and 2.50 RBI's the last 10 games with an OK .275 average but zero power - notice last night!! The only reason we lost was because of a pitching anomaly - their starters have a 5.26 Run average and their pen has a 7.52 Run average in the last 10 games! The

The Brew Crew are 4.00 and 3.66 with a .330 Average. Pitching is 4.18 and the pen is 3.86.

"Bud" Norris (real name is David but he drinks Bud - the best gag reflex rice beer in St. Louis) has pitched 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 games so we should be seeing the Astro pen for 3 innings.

Narveson, when not throwing up between innings, has been throwing great and I feel at -124 have a better then a 55% chance to win the rubber game.

Both pens are in good shape tired-wise advantage Brewers.

In the last 12 games Braun is hitting .440 with 6 HRs and 2B

In those same 12 games Fielder is only hitting .320 3 HR,s 3 3Bs and a 3B but all three HR's ar in the last 4 games

Nice th see McGehee get 2 hits - he was hot before he hurt his thumb.

Betatcorp was hot up to last night!

I hope you are all following the adventures of Tony Plush aka Nyjer Morgon alter ego - pretty funny - looks like he is coming back Tuesday

Dear DL Diary, Day 10: After his first start in weeks, Plush will not trumpet his 2-for-3 line, his stolen base, his base on balls.

What Plush does not expect—cannot accept—is getting picked off first. It is an act so anathema to Plushdamentals that Plush was devastated.

https://twitter.com/#!/Tony_Plush

Houston Game #2

2011-04-30T09:58:00.000-05:00

Sorry - missed yesterday.

Excellent win last night - not counting it in the record but I put an extra unit on the Run Line (I'm anti-run line normally) I was so sure this would be an easy win!

Record 13-12 +2.59 not getting rich but on a pace to win 29 units at the moment.

Today a rematch Wolf vs. Rodriguez. Last time out Brewers won 4-1. Something I noticed is that if you look at the adjusted standings at Baseball Prospectus the Brewers and Houston are on opposite sides . Brewers SHOULD have more victories and Astros SHOULD have more losses.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index.php?dispgroup=all&standings_rsort=d3

This time I'm looking at the line at -127. The last time the two met in Milwaukee it was -145. I actually think the Brewers have a better chance today as they re not playing in dead air Miller Park (much better when roof is open) as opposed to Minute Made Park.

Briken record time - Brewers bats are STILL zooming while Houston are not BAD but certainly not up to the Brewers! So then we have to look at pitching.

Randy Wolf - WOW - could be the best 3 games of ANY pitcher for the Brewers that I can remember! 20.3 innings - 9 hits, 5 BB and 19Ks with a 0.44 ERA and that is not including 6 innings 2 ER vs. Cubs! WOW - can you really go AGAINST that? Some would say yes but man - how would you feel if you went against Wolf and lost! DAA!!! I'm a contrairian but even I can't bet against him.

Plus the fact that he owns Houston (.213avg .331 SLG)

Rodriguez pitched a good game against the Brewers but he IS a flyball pitcher. The brewers hit a lot of ground balls his last time out . . anomaly? Plus Wandy has pitched 244 pitches his last 2 games after pitching in the 80s his 1st three. Not actually to rare for him as he goes deep into the count many times. Not so much this year as he has been pitching to contact which the Brewers like.

Houston pen is still a little tired - not enough to keep people out of the game but still they have a 7.47 Run Average in the last 10 games and have given up at least 1 run in 7 of the last 8 games.

Milwaukee has had 5 very good outings in a row (talking the entire pen, not just Mitre who had 5 good outings and 2 bad ones now). Milwaukee pen has a 3.63 Run average last 10 games.

No run line play today but I'll take the Brewers at -127.

Photo of the day - these are mammoth vacuums that the Brewers use when that play the Cubs at Miller Park - the suck up Chicago drunks I think.

"WE" BEAT THE REDS WHOO HOO!!

2011-04-27T08:21:00.001-05:00

Wednesday Cinci Game #3

Record 12-11 +3.10

Small write up today as I'm off to the game - if anybody else goes and see's a guy with two cameras and a Brewer jacket - yell Grinder and see if I look.

I'm on the Brewers today mostly because they have a monkey off their back and has nothing else to do with baseball. Gallardo vs. LeCure who is sort of a Leake pitcher - ground balls, high lifetime WHIP, high-ish ERA.

Brewer bats are smokin' hot - top of the lineup .335 4.4 runs 3.5 RBI's - - Cinci NOT hot .221 3.09 Runs and 2.36 RBIs.

Gallardo has always pitched a lot of balls per batter - last year 3.98 pitches per batter, 2009 was 4.03 and this year 4.01 which tells you why he only goes 6 innings! Cinci normally lights Gallardo up in a serious way and I'm hoping that with Yovani's recent slump and the Reds recent slump will match up correctly and help the Crew.

Brewers are -155 which is steep but the Reds are just not hitting and with the clean-up their line-up is in disarray - I was reading comments on Sports line last night from Reds fans and there seems to be a lot of big question marks with line-ups and who is playing where. It's not a stable team at the moment.

Pens for both teams are in good shape

Brewers -155

Cinci Game #23

2011-04-26T11:08:00.002-05:00

record 12-10 +410

WOW - just to make things more kornfusing I ran some numbers of how the Top of the Brewers lineup performed against pitcher types! BRAIN HURT!!! More on that in a bit.

WHO KNEW Narveson was suffering from flu-like symptoms. The Reds batters really only had one GREAT inning and the Brewer bats still did the job - just not enough to overcome the regurgitation which happened in the 3rd.

Tonight! Game #23 vs. Cinci! 23 you say? well in the last 22 games the Reds have beaten the Brewers 19 times. However the Reds have always had much better pitching then the Brewers and I refuse to make the link between winning 3 times in 22 games to tonight's game. Not gonna do it! No way! Means absolutely nothing. Not even going to think about it.

~~Eric~~ Marco Estrada's big problem coming into this year was that he throws a lot off speed junk which was OK in the minors but going against REAL batters he was projected to be taken deep more then acceptable! Well, his ground ball % is still 40% this year which is a big deal and makes me uncomfortable against the Reds who are tied with the Brewers in home runs in the last 20 games with . . 20.

Still - he has pitched well for a #5 and no one has complained at all. The thought was he would pitch one game and be sent down but he pitched 4 good innings in spring training and he's still here.

The Brewer bats are still alive and well with the top of the order hitting .344 scoring 4.3 runs per game and hitting in 3.5 runs per game! Pretty good! HOWEVER . . . . weirdness comes into play!

I was looking at what styles of pitchers were giving the guys problems. First thing I looked at were Ground ball vs. Fly Ball pitchers! Since GB% is almost always <50% I found that on average the Brewers start to have a tiny problem when the GB% gets above 45%.

Mike Leake is about a 47% GB%

Then I was looking at BABIP (Batting Average from Balls In Play) and oddly this year, SO FAR (and I have noticed this before I looked this up) they prefer pitchers with low BABIP (under .300) and Leake is .311. Now remember we are talking about a group hitting .340 so "poor" is relative! They just do worse then .340.

The Brewers CRUSH low WHIP hurlers (I use that term loosely as Narvesons was a double hurler last night). If you have a guy with a WHIP below 1.34 they hit .371 Above 1.34? .268 Leak is 1.46

And finally there is this thing called FRA (Fair Run Average) which is defense and park adjusted ERA and once again the better the pitcher the better they do. It's almost like that really concentrate more against the tough guys.

Of course this is all on limited numbers so take it for what it's worth.

ANYWAY - at this moment the Brewers are slight favorites at -114 and the Reds are +104 and my gut feeling is that this could go either way.

OH - BTW looking at Leake and how he has done against the Brewers . . . Wil Nieves is 0-3, That's it. The only guy that has ever faced Leake so the Brewers have NEVER had a hit off him.

So here is what will happen - for the 1st time since the Crew faced the Nat's I'm betting against MY team! The Brewers will lose and Brew fans will get all weird saying we suck and the world is coming to an end forgetting that Hart (who will REALLY help) and Grinke (Cy Young) are still not playing.

I can not see St.Louis or Reds staying with the Brewers in the long run!

RED +104

Cinci Game #1

2011-04-25T08:36:00.001-05:00

Record 12-9 +5.31

Loved yesterdays game - today not so much - gonna be tight.

The Reds coming into Milwaukee struggling. They lost their clean-up hitter and future hall of famer Rolan which I feel is vastly underrated! Losing you clean-up just makes the order less workable, uncomfortable and the Reds offense is not working. The top of the line up is hitting .213 in the last 10 games scoring a very average 2.67 runs per game but hitting in only 2.00 runs per game. Compare that with the Brewers .340 4.2 runs and 3.3 RBI and that is a pretty large difference!

So if you are comparing only offense the Brewers have a HUGE edge.

Pitching - Arroyo has done well vs. Milwaukee and if he can keep people off base when the home runs come he will do fine. He's pitched 54 innings against these Brewers and given up 8 home runs but in Miller Park he has owned the Brewers! However, the Brewers have never been this hot when he shows up. And I'm not talking the long ball but just getting people on base!! Arroyo has pitched against Arizona twice, the Brewers and Pitts! 3 of those 4 games are against high home run teams.

Narveson is a LHP and geez - the guy has a 2.19 ERA and is 1-3 in games started? In his last 15 games started he has an ERA of 3.13. Probebly want to factor in that he has a career .269 batting average (Arroyo has a .131 average) which just helps the lineup so well. Plus the guy is a EXPERT bunter for close games (Arroyo is not very good at all with any facet of batting). So it's theReds 8 guys against the Brewers 9 guys!

The key to this game for the Brewers is getting on base - they will get a long ball but will it be a 1 run dinger?

Both pens are rested (Cinci had a midnight flight to Milwaukee after last nights game) but the Reds pen has been outstanding! Brewers better get their runs early. Reds starters have given up 3 or more runs in 7 straight games and then the pens comes in to shut the door! They have Run average of 1.64 (compared the the Brewers slightly deceiving 5.53 but it's not THAT bad - clean up innings and so forth).

The trouble spot for the Brewers would be long relief.

If I had to pick one game for the Brewers to lose this series - this would be the game but the bats are just so horrifically hot - not a fan of the run line mostly because it's normally a sucker bet and this game could be close! Gotta stay with the hot bats and get the runs early as the Brewers will be closed out the last 3 innings!

Reds take a lot of pitches - Brewers are free swingers both pitches are pretty average at pitches per batter (unlike Gallardo)

Gotta be a homer again

Milwaukee -121

Houston/Brewers Game 3

2011-04-24T10:23:00.002-05:00

Record 11-9 +4.31

Had a few things right last night but in the end - the Brewer pen let me down. The bullpen for the Crew has become a small problem but in this series . . anything can happen. And once I get a little down at the Brewer pen I look at the Astros and feel much better. The Phillie series was so easy to predict but this series has so many little crazy things in it.

OK today we have WANDY Rodriguez going against Wolf.

Rodriguez - sigh - wow where do you begin. In his four games Wandy has pitched against teams that score an average of 4.45L, 4.30L, 4.21L, 4.60W - The Brewers are 4.70 so this will be his biggest test. Wandy is pretty bad on the road. In the last three years he has a 2.59 ERA at home and a 4.25 ERA on the road. Wandys average "Game Score" at home is 57.72 while on the road it's 47.39 in the last 2 years. He also, on average, he does not get to the 6th inning on the road.

This is big as the Astro bullpen is actually worse then you think. While they have a 4.19 ERA their defense is ballooning the pens runs per game up to a staggering 5.49. Plus - something Brewers fans are very familiar with - the Astro pen is tired! 9 pitchers and 186 pitches this series so far compared the the Brewers 140 and 9 pitchers, that's like an extra 5 innings.

Probably won't see Melancone or Abad or Lyon which is basically the entire back end of the bull pen!

On the other hand the Houston bats are coming alive against the Brewers which makes me nervous. Houston was pretty quite coming into Milwaukee but have awaken!

Milwaukee - Wolf - 1st thing I did was to look at all of Wolfys past performances - he has pitched two games in a row with a Game Score in the 70s. Remember I looked at Halladay and discovered that Halladay always had a bad outing his 3rd time out after back to back 70's and . . it works out great. Wolf? Not too worried.

Wolf seems to get on a streak and while he has only been back to back 70s a few times when he does get hot he stays hot. In 2002 he had 4 +70s in a row. So I'm not REAL worried about a big let down. He seems streaky!

Wolf has pitched against team scoring 4.60W, 3.89W, 4.30L 5.37L and Houston is 4.60. Wolf is slightly better at home and slightly better in Day games and is pretty even LHH vs. RHH (Rodriguez tends to be a little worse vs. Right hand hitters and Braun OWNS him).

Listening to the game last night I was worried about Council leading off for the injured Weeks - once I really thought about it I hated the idea, then he goes 2 for 6 with two runs! I don't like Weeks out of the line-up but I feel the brewers can overcome this (and better defense).

Fielder has not hit an HR in 9 games and won't today against Rodriguez but Braun might. What can't he hit at the moment! Brewers have a slugging vs. LHP of .335 and against RHP .450 but this is where the brewers have a higher kicker. The Astros have zero usable Lefties in their pen and once Rodriguez is remove with 2 outs in the 5th . . . . actually he might go longer with only long and middle relievers in the pen. It's all down hill for Houston.

I'm feeling better about this game - remember yesterday my spidey senses for tingeing, Win big or lose.

Today - just win against a bullpen that ii giving up runs

Cliff notes
Rodriguez + 0.5 Brewers
Wolf +1.0 Brewers
Houston Pen -1.5
Milwaukee pen -0.5
Houston bats +.75
Milwaukee Bats +1.1

I'm just making that crap up you know.

Brewers -145 145 to win 100

Not a probem last night!

2011-04-23T09:55:00.001-05:00

Not a problem last night!

11-8 +5.47 units! All bets are one unit - I believe it's silly to bet more then one unit thinking one bet is a better bet then the next.

Today's game (Saturday 4/23/11)

First the Brewers!

What can you say about the Brewers - red hot bats - The top of the line-up is hitting a very productive .319 scoring 3.9 runs a game and driving in 3.3. anything the bottom of the order does is icing on the cake. We shall see about Rickie Weeks injury but overall "at the moment" his production will not be missed if he does not play.

Marcum - I've been looking for a reason to worry about Marcum but I can not find one. OK - maybe one, three of his 4 games have been againt Pittsburgh twice and Atlanta! The two weakest scoring teams in the NL. Now it's Houston, about middle of the pack and performing of late like a middle of the pack team offensively.

Brewer bullpen - the important part of the pen is well rested and ready to go. The long relievers have been a little iffy but it's sort of been spring training-ish where they just don't want to give up a LOT of runs - no real pressure.

Houston - top of the order are pulling their weight hitting .252 and scorning 2.73 and hitting in 2.73 runs per game (compared to the brewers 3.9 & 3.3)

Brett Myers - you see what you get. The good thing for the Crew is that he kills lefties (except Fielder) and the Crew have few lefties starting . He's giving up HR's again, unlike last year and he will pitch 6 innings - almost guaranteed.

He BETTER pitch 6 innings because the Houston pen pitched 109 pitches last night and could be a little thin. This is where I feel the Brewers will have the big edge! Bullpen tonight!

Another thing that Houston was HORRIBLE at last night was fielding - if you did not see the game they made what I consider 5 errors in one inning - three missed DP's an error by 3B and on the same play a bobble by rock hand Lee in LF (that guy is the worst OF in the Majors - if anybody plays Strat-o-matic they will agree 5e8+2).

However - something is making my spider sense twitch. I believe the Brewers win by +2 or . . . lose!! Maybe they got tired running around the bases! I don't know

So for THIS thread Brewer -168

Wait - I just saw that Houston is MUCH better vs. LHP - Marcum is a RHP. I like this game even more now.

Personally I have 1/2 unit at -168 and 1/2 unit on the RL +130 - I'm not a fan of the run line as I think it's a sucker bet normally but in this case - win big or lose!

-----------------------
Side note - when I told my friend I was going to bet on or against the Brewers in every game this year I did not consider I would be

1. betting the favorite so much
2. Betting the Brewers making me look like a homer

Betting Brewers 7-4 +3.44
Betting against 4-4 +2.13

Good luck

Houston/Brewers Game 1

2011-04-22T09:42:00.000-05:00

This is the part where I try to convince myself that it's OK to bet on the Brewers at -200.

So Far 10-8 +4.47 units.

I'm not loving this game a lot and after going 2-1 +2.02 vs. the Phillies and having a very good read on those games (could have won that 3rd game at +180) this game is sort of fuzzy.

Houston - Nelson Figueroa LOVES facing Righthanders and most of the Brewers starting line-up and particularly the top of the order are all right handed so "point" for Houston. However if you look at Figueroa's games he's done well against the weak hitting teams and poorly against good heating teams. "point Milwaulee".

The Houston starters have a 4.62 run average and the bullpen has a 3.94 Run average so as a team they are giving up runs! The Houston top of the order is hitting .232 of late with 2.6 runs scored and 2.4 RBI so not a LOT of production out of those guys (more then the Phillies though).

Milwaukee on the other hand is 3.2 and 3.2 and is hitting .302 for the top 5 guys in the same period.

Gallardo - I was looking back to see if Yovani had ever had two worse back to back games in his career and yes - once 8/8/07 and 8/15/07. After those two outing's he came back pitching 6 of the next 7 games with Game Scores in the mid 60's.

But if you look at his bad games. His 1st BAD game he suffered Early Season Complete Game Syndrome*. Then in his 2nd bad game the Brewers had all sort of scheduling problems with rain outs and so forth and Yovani is never good at having his schedule messed up!

Gallardo will have a good game! The Brewer bullpen is FINALLY rested and has a 3.38 run average and the Brewer defense will either put on a clinic or be totally horrible with bone head mental mistakes - Houston is just atrocious defensibly.

So even though the Brewers are -200 I feel that taking the Astros at +175 is just tossing money away!

Early Season Complete Game Syndrome = seems early in the season what a starter pitches a complete game he is gassed the very next game. So many warm up pitches, extra at bats, defense and so forth. He might not feel it but command and velocity and movement are just a little off and they come into the game overrated.

We COULD sweep!!

2011-04-20T09:25:00.004-05:00

Last night was a good night. It feels pretty good to be right when I could have been SO wrong!

record is 10-7 and using 100 as a base bet I'm +5.47 units

Today the Brewers are yet again big dogs and I just can not see the Brewers as being THAT big of a dog. The top of the lineup is hitting a very productive .294 scoring 3.3 runs and batting in 3.10 runs per game! Compare this to the Phillies .245 1.90 and 2.11 the Brewers are hitting way better then the Phillies at the moment.

Cliff Lee is going for the Phillies, the Crew have had problems with lefties but again, the Brewers are clicking. PLUS PLUS - something I'll have to look into more deeply, it SEEMS that the Brewers do not like pitchers that don't throw strikes! It SEEMS that when they know a pitcher is going to be near the plate, as Mel Gibson says in one of my all time fav movies "Signs" the Brewers "Swing away Merrill. Merrill... swing away"!

When the crew feels comfortable and can just go up ripping, they have success.

Lee strike's out 10.6 batters for every walk. Swing away guys! Plus the fact that Lee had an OUTSTANDING outing his last event probably boosts the inflated line up even more. As I mentioned a few days ago the crew has problems vs. ground ball pitchers and Lee is a flyball pitcher. (vs. Washington 5 GB vs. 12 FBs). Plus it was a complete game which tires out pitchers more then just the amount of pitches thrown as you have between inning warm-ups and so forth.

Narveson - he's not the same dude we have seen in the past. In his last 14 starts he has a 3.03 ERA giving up only 5 HRs.

Phillies are not bad against LHPs but are slumpish!

Both bullpens are . . OK. Brewers had a much needed rest and Phillies back end is rested.

So while the Brewers could easily lose this game, in fact odds are they will, I can not turn down a +180. Crew have a better then 35% chance to win.

Brewers +180

GL

Knock knock on the bullpen doors - who's there . . . nobody!

2011-04-19T08:16:00.000-05:00

I actually don't have a clue if anybody reads this or not but it's good to document.

So far 9-7 +2.045 units!

Is there anybody in the bullpen with an arm they can spare?

Today we have Wolf vs. Halladay and while this game looks freakishly obvious there are a couple chinks in the Philly armor!

Their hitting has not been so wonderful, as the top of the order is hitting .253 and not really contributing to run production. So while Halladay is pitching well can they score? Another thing is Halladay. Looking back at his history, while he is a Hall of Fame pitcher, in his career when he has thrown two 70+ Game Score games his next game comes in below average at 50ish. OH - it's a league average performance but not HIS average (low 60s).

So I'm not expecting the -1.23 ERA Halladay to show up tonight.

Of course Wolf is what Philly hitting could use you get them out of their funk. They like Lefties, they like Wolf. The Brewers REALLY need Wolf to pitch a complete game!!! yea - OK, that will happen.

The bullpen has pitched 192 pitches in the last two days. The only pitchers that are rested are the ineffective ones, Braddock and Axford, oh yea, Mitre could pitch, he has shown he is not a hack. All the rest have pitched 2 days in a row. Green could go 3 days in a row but the last time he had problems.

Yea can't cherry coat this game - Brewers stand to lose but look at the line. +190 for the Crew? I'll put 1/2 unit on that one because the Phillies have not proven they can score and Halladay is due for a league average game.

Brewers are scoring in the last 10 games, Top of the Order is hitting .293 and averaging a very healthy 3.5 Runs and 3.2 RBI's per game (Phillies are 2.11 and 2.3) and with only two home runs in the last 6 games perhaps now is the time to come alive with an overconfident Hallady.

1/2 unit on the Brewers at +190

#5 Pitcher on a good team

2011-04-18T13:35:00.000-05:00

This is one of those times where I love the dog. You have a very good Philly team starting it's #5 Starter against a good team starting it's, at this point #1 pitcher, and the good team is a dog.

Philly Joe Blanton is the Dave Bush of the Phillys, Lots 'f hits per inning and HR's per start and lots of fly balls!

Hitting the Philly's have not really produced a lot of runs lately and if you look at their stats you will notice that in their 1st 7 games they averaged 7 runs a game and since then only 5 runs again, not real bad but I would be concerned with Blanton pitching.

The closing end of the bullpen has pitched 2 days in a row which could be a concern in a close game.

Brewers - Marcum a MUCH better pitcher then Blanton and has been pitching very very well. Also a fly ball pitcher but the guy is just plane good and with the op of the Philly line-up having a couple lefties, he's that much better as he has a history of being very good vs. LHB.

The Brewers bats were weird. 13 singles in game one yesterday and game two was the very first game of the year where the top of the lineup had 0 RBIs. Won't happen tonight!

Wind blowing straight out 10-15

Brewers - one full unit +112

Going for a split!

2011-04-17T00:00:00.002-05:00

It's always one little thing that bugs me when I'm obsessing over a game. I know I want Gallardo in the 1st game . . .even though THAT game now has a mosquito.

PROBLEM - Wind blowing OUT at 10-15 mph.

I consider Gallardo a diamond in the rough. The guy is freaking good, just not totally polished! I think he likes striking people out too much and has a ever so slight affinity to Fly balls, but does not give up many HR's . . . unless you have a gale wind behind you perhaps.

Still Brewers all the way. Although I do believe Marquis is a scary pitcher - never mind last year but yada yada - Brewers with power -145

--------------
Game #2

Some Guy (not Japanese) against Livan Hernandez. sigh - dang it I was going solid with Hernandez but then I see he's never actually had a batted ball touch the ground but oddly does not give up many HR's why? Nationals Park is not an HR Park SO - HE could have some problems.

But the Brewers have Some Guy, 4 years, 38 innings, 7.51 ERA, yea, confidence is high! OH, did I mention 9 HR's in those 38 innings and the wind will be blowing out? Nationals -300 and the Over 10.

My bets
Brewers Game #1 -139
Nationals Game #2 -101

And I found this awesome band from the past!

A comment from the J-Walk Blog

I was a big fan back in the 60s, and played that album daily. I couldn't decide which one I liked best: Frances (the "cute Faith Tone"), Francine (the "pudgy Faith Tone"), or Franny ("the slut").

A few years ago, Toad sent me some FT bootleg recordings from a failed "come-back" tour in 1972. Unfortunately, the sound quality was bad, and it seemed like they had lost their edge.

Rumor has it that Franny went on to become a successful Jay Leno impersonator in Vegas. It's probably not true.

Any other Faith Tones fans?

Shoulda!

2011-04-16T09:03:00.000-05:00

Harsh - how to have a bull pen pitch almost 5 innings without giving up a hit and they still lose - on an ERROR!! The team, with the least amount of errors in the Majors lose on an error.

Now 7-6 +1.215

Of course having a 25mph wind blowing in and having the Brewers hit everything on the head right at fielders . . . .grrrrrr. Washington only had 5 hits and some REAL close balls with the bases loaded geting two runs on bases loaded walks! I should have won that one - excuses excuses!!

Today - Gallardo -145. Seems like a good deal! Brewers should win this game about 70% of the time Take the money and run - wind is blowing out, could go over! I bet the over 8 even (won't count it in my stats - just sayin . . . .)

Gallardo has pitched Washington 3 times and has given up 6 runs while striking out 24. Marquis not a lot of luck vs. Brewers.

Brewers have a better offense - games like this come down to the price you have to pay and I believe -145 is a fair price. -200 would be a fair price.

Rod

Wolf? Wolf?? Come on!!!

2011-04-15T10:38:00.000-05:00

Took a loss - WOLF! wow - what the hell. once and MAYBE twice a year Wolf has one of those amazing outings where everything just works. Last night was one of those nights! I look at the game now and STILL - I would play the Pirates (well, if I did not know the final outcome at least).

SO - 7-5 +2.445

Today - gotta go with the Brewers but the line is SO slanted that the Nats would probably be the smart play. What team vs. LHP can be better! Both are horrible but if you look at Narveson, is this the real Narveson?

Look at the Game Scores** for his last 9 starts (50 is average)

73, 68, 68, 58 , 29, 61, 67, 69, 62

Those are great and so consistant!!!

Gorzelanny has had some good games but is inconsistent.

**Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

The Brewer top of the line-up (TotL) has been struggling a little vs. LHP but the National TotL has been consistently nonexistent.

So on one level I say take the Nat's and their +113 but then I look at the game and go - wow - Brewers are going to win their 8th of out their last 9 games (at -123).

Brewer pen is mostly rested but set-up man might be unavailable. The Brewer pitching staff has been on fire and has the 2nd lowest ERA in the Majors since Apr 4th. Washing ton Starters have been giving up too many runs before the bullpen can shut the doors.

Brewers -123

Brewers - Game "3" - toss-up

2011-04-14T07:50:00.001-05:00

Good win yesterday, now 7-4 +3.465

Tonight Randy Wolf who has pitched horribly and not only hates PNC Park but hates facing the Pirates (or at least I would if I were him) vs. Maholm who chews up Brewers and spits them out!

Weird set up - Right now the Brewers are being literally powered by Prince Fielder who in the last 6 games is hitting .545 with 5 runs and 14 RBIs (note - only 5 runs). The brain teaser here is that Maholm is a Prince killer. I'm thinking that "I" might have a better BA against Maholm (ok, not really) as Prince is hitting .071 (LHB vs. LHP).

Maholm is a Ground Ball pitcher which the Brewers have some problems with. Braun and most of the Brewers are prone to hitting into DPs when not juicing homers and DP's just suck the life out of rallies. Last year the Brewer offense bogged down against GB pitchers which is the reason new manager Ron Roenicke has stressed berserker aggressiveness on the base paths this year.

With looming double plays the crew might be trying to steal more bases which is nice but then again it does close up the infield holes that are created with holding runners on base (hmmm, sort of a wash there actually). So I believe we shall see an aggressive base running game from Milwaukee. No waiting for the home run tonight.

Then there is Wolf - talk about a guy that loves to pitch the ball down the middle! HOLY MACKEREL. DUDE!!! He's been bad this year AND has kept the ball on the ground... ,except for the Home Runs! What happens when he starts to serve them up.

Last year 59% of his outs were flyballs and 2.1% of those were Home Runs. In 2009 59% and 6.4%, 2008, 59% 6.1% so he's pretty consistent. This year? 49% and 21% in his 2 games and 10 innings. I have not heard of any major shift in his delivery but you never know. Can a new pitching coach have THAT much influence over a 13 year veteran who has never had a FB% under 58%?

Brewers bullpen will get some work tonight and there 1.80 run average in the last 7 games will put out the fire but it could be too late.

The Pirate bullpen has not been too shabby but that 11 inning bullpen shutout sort of reaps havoc the total pen experience. Expect them to give up at least one run so going into the 7th inning the Pirates will need at least a 2 run lead. I think they can have that lead.

I believe this game is a true toss-up and since you pay more to play the Brewers, I'm on the Pirates. I ran a 15,000 game simulation which has a few flaws because you can not predict the future from stats in the past without some tweaking but I feel it is good enough to confirm my believe. Using the ol' Pythagorean theorem the Brewers should be about a -102.

There you have it.
GL
Rod

Milwaukee vs, Pittsburgh Game #1

2011-04-12T07:34:00.000-05:00

Record 6-4 +2.465

Screwy betting system (yea - I know it's stupid but at the moment it's +EV because I'm losing dogs - I'll switch when I start to win more dogs or it becomes evident it is turning -EV).

unit = 100

1/2 unit on dogs (ie +180 = 50 bet)
Unit+ on Chalks (ie -180 = 180 bet)
-----------------------------------

Game #1

NOTE - the below was typed before lines came out - over night I had convinced myself that I should take any decent dog play and of course the line comes out a -119 Brewers and +108 Pirates.

Gotta go with Brewers. Actually I would stay away from this game if I could but I gotta take a side - we're at war.
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Milwaukee - we all know what the Crew did to the Pirates last year. As a team they hit .292 with 33 homeruns in 18 games and averaged 6.94 runs per game. YIKES How high can the linemakers make this line anyway (not very high I guess)! The only thing saving the Pirates from a double digit line (what's the highest line anyway, anyone know?) is that the Pirate "ace" Correia has had two quality starts! One against the Cubs and one against the weakest hitting team in the NL, St. Louis!

The thing is that I don't trust Correia yet. He was a hack in San Diego, the best pitchers ball park in the Majors - in fact last year in PETCO park his ERA was 5.36. In spring training he was horrible (take that for what it's worth) and in the past two years he has a 4.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 starts versus sub-.500 teams. THUS - I'm still not sold he is a #1 Starter.

Something to take note of is that Correia can not hold runners on AND the catcher Doumit cannot throw anybody out! If the Brewers Morgon (.524 OB) or Gomez (.257 OB) get on base they can steal 2nd AND 3rd without a lot of trouble. (Pirates are 3 out of 10 catching stealers).

Then there is the Pirate offense - in the 4 game series vs. Colorado in "ultra friendly to hitters" Coors Field, they sort of sucked. The Top of the Order (TotO) hit .196 with 10 runs and 8 RBIs.

Pitts bullpen, if you take out that one 11 inning world class bullpen experience, is struggling with a 4.64 run average (compared to the Brewers 2.00 in the last 7 games).

The only thing the Pirates have going for them is youth who might not remember the past.

This is like preaching to the choir and is probably a better game for rgsigly to predict in a quantitative way as he will know if the price listed will be just too steep!

Brewers - should crush the Pirates and when I say crush I really mean I hope they win by more then 1. In their last 4 games the Brewer TotO are hitting .333 with 15 runs and 15 RBI's.

Both teams have rested pens.

If you look at the Pirate ERA (3.29) you would think they have a hot staff but what is hidden is the 8 unearned runs mostly caused by the left side of their infield.

Brewer - just a hot team right now but my concern is the weather. Should be cold and drizzly tonight and it seems the Crew are not fond of cold weather and PNC Park is a death bed for Righties (weeks / Braun) trying to hit home runs in April. But this also helps the Brewers as Marcum is prone to the long ball being a major Flyball pitcher.

So - I was thinking the Brewers would be about -145 but at -119 I'll take them!

Cheers
Rod

Comfort level.

2011-04-10T09:43:00.000-05:00

Last night was my first hard loss of the year. 5 & 4 with 3 loses all being by 1 run so - yup - missed that one. Narverson was brilliant and has been for a good number of starts now - if he can continue the Brewers will be REAL tough this year.

Anyway 5-4 +1.46 units

Today - Brewers at a mammoth -180.

Bazaar betting strategy - 1/2 unit on dogs more then 1 unit of chalks - explained below.

I'm not going to get cute with words. My goal was to put a bet on or against the Brewers every game, not write witty prose everyday. I'll get to my vague reasoning on paying a ton on the Brewers later but I want to explain my somewhat flawed betting style.

As rsigley (who I actually respect at times) would put it, betting 1/2 unit on a dog is insane - he is a kelly better at that is fine. He bets kelly because that is what he is comfortable with.

The Kelly strategy is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. The Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the long run.

Those last 4 words, for me, are essential, "in the long run". I'm an online poker player, and for 8 years I played 2-4 tables at a time of poker for 20 hours a week. You learn a lot about yourself after a few million hands of poker. The one thing I learned was that I hate losing. I loath it. I can't stand losing. It's not the money part - I have enough of that, it's just being wrong, that is what I hate.

So while Kelly is a wonderful strategy, I know that just slowly dropping bet size when my bankroll starts to dwindle is not enough. I need to make sure I GET TO the long run.

So - when I play a dog, which has a higher percentage of losing, I feel more comfortable playing 1/2 unit. I'm not betting sports to live on, I bet sports for entertainment. Losing a whole unit on a dog is just not fun. Of course losing MORE then 1 unit on a chalk is not fun either but I lose much less often.

So yesterday the Cubs were what like +102 or something and I bet 51. Today the Brewers are -180 and I'm betting 180 (to win 100).

So yea - you can laugh at my less then optimal betting strategy, but you have to look at yourself and determine WHY you are gambling on sports! Is it entertainment? or are you trying to make real money.

Playing poker I have an actually kelly-ish system because maximizing my bank roll is important but sports wagering, I just want to make some extra cash and HAVE A LONG RUN and not get anal about it.
---------------------------

Brewers - did you know that Braun and Fielder are linked? If you look at their careers they are both in an every other year trend. HOT and LESS HOT. This is the HOT year for both and with Fielder getting an HR the other day confirms it.

You see on years Fielder hits 40+ HRs he has a Home Run early in the season and on years he sort of struggles he can go the 1st 14 games swinging at air. Well in the last 4 games he has 8 hits, 9 RBI's 4 doubles and an HR. I think that qualifies him as hot! The top of the Brewers order is HOT.

Now add in a dash of Gallardo who had a GREAT spring, one good outing and a fantastic outing (games score of 83) and you have a powerful looking team. Rested bull pen is ready, the weather will be in the 80s with the roof open for the 1st time at a sold out, electric Miller Park and I'm feeling confident.

Did I mention that in Gallardo's 7 outings vs. the Cubs 5 times they have score 2 or less runs?

What of the Cubs - last night was their first offensive stumble. Some will say that is all it is but I say a stumble is more of a warning sign! They have been hitting the crap out of the ball but really only scoring an average amount of runs. Inefficient is one word. So what happens when an inefficient stops hitting??

Gallardo's opponent is Coleman - a pretty good pitcher when he starts! But this is his first major league start of the year.

BTW - Braun is hitting .800 vs. Coleman.

Plus - how long will Coleman stay in the game. In his 9 major league starts he has faced 26 batters 5 times (sort of weird) averaging a very good 3.6 pitches per batter which is also the Brewer average per batter. So the Cub bullpen which has a run average of 4.35 will come into play. The crew has a 0.81 run average for the pen of late.

Anyway - I'm getting wordy!

Brewers at a scary -180

Good luck

No compelling argument

2011-04-09T08:02:00.001-05:00

Now 5-3 +1.965 units

Wrote this Friday night! At the moment Cubs -105 Brewers -115 so I'm not really sure what I'll do yet. Probably wait for the line to move one way or another and pick the contrarian side,
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I have no compelling argument for either team. I believe the Cubs, at the moment, are a diamond in the rough. Their top of the lineup is hitting lights out at a .350 clip, add to that it's a very productive order scoring 23 runs and knocking in 22 - NOT BAD for a 7 game run.

Then there is Garza. When he is pitching well he's a 7 inning pitcher. You would think his last outing was an unspectacular quality start, 7 innings 3 runs but 12 hits but let's not forget 12 K's. And when thinking about those 12 hits, they were against a Pirate team that was in their own tiny hot streak!

So I suspect Garza to have another good outing against a Brew Crew still looking for magic. Garza can serve up the long ball with the best of them but the Brewers are not really going nuts with the homers (well, take Weeks away and . . . ). Weeks has gone 4 games, and Fielder, ALWAYS a slow starter only has 1.

Actually the Brewers without Hart have to rely (is that the right word? looks weird) on speed and Garza is pretty good at holding on runners, the question is Soto's arm. (blah) Bullpen is as rested as you can get but even ironman Marshall will need a rest if he pitches today.

Brewers - top of the order .257 with 15 runs and 14 RBI in the last 7. blah! Their problem is not having Hart, the lineup just is not a smooth machine. They have all sorts of pretty. yet non blending parts! Just not scoring. They don't have a "lineup", just a group of good players.

Narveson - when pitching well is still not an inning eater as in his last 5 GOOD games he still only goes only 6.4 innings meaning the Brewer pen will come into play. BUT, and they are in good shape with the "A" line-up ready. Actually their pen has only given up 1 run in the last 9 innings (Cubs 9 runs in the last 12.67).

So it's a freaking crap shoot.

So - I see this morning that Cubs are at +102 this morning so I'm playing 1/2 unit on the Cubs! I'm still playing only 1/2 units on dogs!

Could be a rough night for the Crew

2011-04-08T07:40:00.000-05:00

Record 4-3 +1.44 units

Brewers on a mini-roll but it'll be a tough night for Miller Park patrons and here is why.

First of all let's look at the Cubs. The top of the Cubs order is hitting .341 this year with 18 runs and 15 RBI's in 6 games, pretty formidable and while most of those stats are against RHP the Cubs are a much better team vs. LHP.

The starter is Zambrano who I despise but he's good and in the last 3 years in 60 IPs against the Brewers he has a 2.55 ERA and a 1.66 ERA at Miller Park. His last game he had a game score of 51 which was his worst start in his last 9 appearances but still good. (Wolf had a GMSc of 21). The Cub bullpen is rested but it does have a 5.28 Run Average so if the Brewers want to win they need to get Zam out of the game. Weeks is a .190 hitter vs. Zambrano and the only two players in the Brewer line-up that hit him are Fielder (14 Walks in 41 AB) and our gold star replacement player Morgon (who should play RF today).

Then there are the Brewers. The top is hitting .266 with 12 Runs and 12 RBIs in the last 6 games and Randy Wolf is pitching who totally sucked his last outing and needed massive help from the bullpen (106 BP pitches). There is a problem here as the Brewer bullpen, at least the two most consistent pitchers might not be available. Loe has pitched 4 of the last 5 games, Axford has gone two games in a row leaving Saito as the closer. The Brewer BP has a 6.17 Run Average.

Braddock has been solid but he's a LHP. This leaves Green and Kintzler who totally sucked their last time out (when Wolf pitched last).

So bottom line is that IF the Brewers can get to the Cubs bullpen they have a chance. The problem is getting there. The one bright side is that while Wolf has struggled he is pretty good vs. the Cubs, IF IF he can stay away from the long ball which has been his big problem (7 HR in 117 ABs vs. current Cub players). In the last 3 years he has a 4.69 ERA vs. the Cubs with 7 starts and 9 HRs.

SO - I picked the Cubs as a dog at +106. Paying -115 for the Brewers is just way to much money. Bet 1/2 unit on the dog.

Gettin the funk out

2011-04-07T07:20:00.000-05:00

Hey - I won when betting ON the Brewers!! Felt nice.

3-3 +0.44 units

today Brewers -106

Today - Couple of pitchers that struggled in their last game so I'm looking at past experiences a little and a few things pop out. The pitches in question, Hanson of the Braves is pretty good vs. LHB which the Brewers only start two. He also is better in night games in the past three years. Marcum of the Brewers is better in day games, loves LHB which the Braves have many off and loves pitching in front of a home crowd.

Brewers could be on a minor roll at the moment and if Fielder is hitting LHP maybe he can break out against RHP.

The top of the order for the Braves is hitting .259 with 5 runs and 3 RBIs vs, the Brewers .274, 6 runs and 5 RBIs so the top of the lineups favor the crew. Both pens are rested with MAYBE Loe needing a little rest for the Brewers but he could pitch and O'Flahorty needing a rest for the Braves.

I'm picking the Brewers at -106 as I feel they are more relaxed finally!

BTW - one team you might want to watch is Pittsburgh- that is one hot team at the moment. If they win today I might have to looking into putting some money ON them. They could be underrated.

Cheers

So Close

2011-04-06T10:38:00.000-05:00

Today = Brewers -102

I can't say I was sad to see the Brewers win FINALLY! Except for the fact that I COULD NOT SEE the Brewers win because I FOX had the Bucks and their "playoff run" instead - THANK YOU!

So I'm 2-3 down -0.56 units except in all three losses I feel I had the game called SO CLOSE. I mean I predicted the Brewers would not score. I new both pitchers loved the opposing team and I predicted it would come down to the bullpen and Atlanta was better.

BUT - I did not predict that Gallardo would NOT strike out everybody and thus by not striking out 9 or 10 and allowing them to hit - he could pitch a complete game. Gallardo's problem is he strikes people out and by doing so wears himself out by the 7th inning.

I'll have to watch this and adjust for when he is playing a team that makes contact!

Today - total crap shoot. Minor vs. Estrada. WOW - Estrada who has sucked at a major league level vs. Minor, a LHP who is not bad. The Brewers got a gorilla off their back and got Gomez out of the lineup.

While not REAL productive the Crew did have 6 hits from the top of the line-up and gave their bullpen a rest . . .they really needed it for tonight's game after pitching basically a full 9 innings worth of pitches in the last 2 games.

The odd thing about Atlanta is that while their starters are only going 85-90 pitches their bullpen is well rested as their pen has only pitched 76 pitches.

The opening line is -102 Brewers -108 Braves at Intertops.

Rod

Ouch 2-1

2011-04-05T09:38:00.002-05:00

Miller Park after the game.

Opening day is always fun unless YOUR teal loses 2-1. Plus the fact that every time you wager for YOUR team to win they lose.

So - I'm 2-2 +0.44 now

Single #2111##### (Placed by Web)

Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(961) Atlanta Braves EVEN^* Tue@6:10p
Competitor:(962) Milwaukee Brewers

Today I'm taking the Braves at -100 from Bodog. Lowe is pitching and he is 7-2 vs. the Crew with a 3.39 ERA.. Gallardo is 2-2 with a stellar 1.27 ERA against the Braves.

What is swaying me is that The Brewers top of the order is hitting .236 while the Braves top is .285. The Brewers bullpen has a 9.02 Run Average while the Braves are 2.14.

Lowe pitched very well his last outing while Gallaedo pitched predestine. Both bullpens are well rested but the Brewers have a little trouble with set-up as Loe, who has pitched very well this year has gone two games in a row and from what I have heard Saito will not go two games in a row and did pitched 32 pitches yesterday.

This game is all over the board and while I feel the Brewers are . . . .due! If you look at just THIS game Atlanta has a greater the even chance to win! You can still find the Braves at -102.

That's me with the high octain Ambergedden from Ale Asylum while my friends are drinking Miller 64! I was about 41 and windy! Still had a great time.

Our seats at Miller Park